Keywords

1 Introduction

Out of the 10 risks by likelihood over the next 10 years identified by the World Economic Forum (2020), the top 5 are related to environment viz. extreme weather events, failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation, major natural disasters, major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, and human made environmental damage and disasters. Climate change is now defining the issues owing to implications on lives and livelihoods of the people and socioeconomic development across the globe. The shifting weather patterns, rising sea levels, and increasingly extreme weather and climate events are being observed on an unprecedented scale. However, climate science has achieved reasonable degree of robustness to provide evidence of global temperature rise and associated features like sea level rise, shrinking sea ice, glacier mass loss, and extreme events (WMO 2019a). The average global temperature has increased about 1.1 ± 0.1 °C above the pre-industrial period (Fig. 8.1) as per WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2019 (WMO 2020). The period 2015–2019 is the warmest of any equivalent period on record as per a high-level synthesis report entitled “United In Science” of latest climate science information convened by the Science Advisory Group of the UN Climate Action Summit 2019 in September 2019. The global mean sea level has risen from 3.04 millimeters per year (mm/year) during 1997–2006 to ~4 mm/year during 2007–2016 mainly due to increased rate of ocean warming and melting of the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets. The last time Earth’s atmosphere contained 400 parts per million CO2 was about 3–5 million years ago, when global mean surface temperatures were 2–3 °C warmer than today, ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica melted, parts of East Antarctica ice had retreated, all causing global sea level rise of 10–20 m compared with today (UN 2019). The continuous growth of CO2 has been observed during 1985–1995 (1.42 ppm/year), 1995–2005 (1.86 ppm/year), and 2005–2015 (2.06 ppm/year). Observed Concentration of CO2, CH4, and N2O were 407.8 ± 0.1 ppm, at 1869 ± 2 ppb, and at 331.1 ± 0.1 ppb during 2018 showing an increase of 146%, 257%, and 122% from pre-industrial levels (WMO 2020).

Fig. 8.1
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Global annual mean temperature difference from preindustrial conditions (1850–1900)

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Three IPCC Special Reports (IPCC 2018, 2019) viz. Global Warming of 1.5 °C, Climate Change and Land and Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate assess complementary and specific aspects of climate change to support global actions for addressing climate change issues ahead of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR 6) to be released in 2021. It appears that implementing unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions and assuming that climate action continues consistently throughout the twenty-first century, would lead to a global mean temperature rise between 2.9 °C and 3.4 °C by 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels. This level of ambition needs to be roughly tripled to align with the 2 °C limit and must be increased around fivefold to align with the 1.5 °C limit (UNEP 2019).

The annual mean temperature during 1901–2019 in India showed an increasing trend of 0.61 °C/100 years with a significant increasing trend in maximum temperature (1.0 °C/100 years) and relatively lower increasing trend (0.22 °C/100 years (IMD 2020). The 2019 annual mean land surface air temperature for the country was +0.36 °C above the 1981–2010 period average, thus making the year 2019 the seventh warmest year on record since1901 (Fig. 8.2). However, annual monsoon rainfall does not show any trend during 1901–2019 (Fig. 8.3).

Fig. 8.2
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Trends in temperature in India during 1901–2019 (Source IMD)

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Fig. 8.3
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Trends in annual rainfall in India during 1901–2019 (Source IMD)

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There is a growing recognition that climate impacts on various sectors will be harder and sooner than climate assessments indicated even a decade ago. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO 2018a) report on the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, climate variability and extremes are negatively affecting all dimensions of food security—food availability, access, utilization, and stability. The frequency of drought conditions from 2015 to 2017 shows the impact of the 2015–2016 El Niño on agricultural vegetation. Large areas in Africa, parts of Central America, Brazil, and the Caribbean, as well as Australia and parts of the Near East, have experienced a large increase in frequency of drought conditions in 2015–2017 compared to the 14-year average. As per International Food Policy Research Institute research (Rosegrant et al. 2014), climate change will put an additional 70 million people at risk of hunger in 2050. It will be impossible to solve the global hunger problem without also addressing the climate problem through adaptation and mitigation. There is a need to follow the Climate Smart Agriculture approach to handle the challenges of a changing climate by sustainably increasing agricultural productivity; helping food systems adapt and building their resilience; and reducing GHG emissions and promoting better knowledge, good practices and available technologies, and innovations.

2 Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

The number of extreme climate-related disasters, including extreme heat, droughts, floods, and storms, has doubled since the early 1990s, with an average of 213 of these events occurring every year during the period 1990–2016. These disasters have significant impacts on agricultural productivity of major crops like wheat, rice, and maize and have caused food price hikes and income losses. 20–80% of the inter-annual variability of crop yields is associated with weather phenomena and 5–10% of national agricultural production losses are associated with climate variability. Climate change may result in increase in number of people at risk of hunger by 10 to 20 percent and malnourished children by 21% by 2050 (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO 2019). In India, the estimated countrywide agricultural loss in 2030 may be more than US$7 billion, which will severely affect the income of 10% of the population (IPCC 2014).

Agriculture contributes between 1% and 60% of national GDP in many countries, with a world average of about 4% in 2017 (World Bank 2019), while it accounts for about 14% in India. Under the current food system, FAO has projected the need of producing about 50% more food by 2050 to feed the increasing world population (FAO 2018a). However, crop production is projected to decrease in many areas of the world during the twenty-first century due to rapid changes in climate barring a few areas/crops with favorable conditions that could increase the yields of some crops. Between 2006 and 2016, agriculture (crops, livestock forestry, fisheries, and aquaculture) in developing countries accounted for an estimated 26% of total loss and damage incurred during medium and large-scale climate-related disasters. While two-thirds of loss and damage to crops was associated with floods, almost 90% of loss and damage in the livestock sector was attributed to drought (FAO 2017). In parallel with these trends, yields may decline by up to 30% by 2050 in the absence of ambitious climate action (Global Commission on Adaptation 2019). The majority of modeling studies agree that climate change impacts on crop yields will be negative from 2030 onwards. Nearly half of the projections beyond 2050 indicate a yield reduction of more than 10%. As per FAO (2018b), climate change is expected to result in declining agricultural production in large parts of Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia. The reductions are projected to be more pronounced in West Africa and India, where production could decrease by 2.9% and 2.6%, respectively, due to climate change impacts (Fig. 8.4).

Fig. 8.4
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Changes in agricultural production by the year 2050 (Source FAO)

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The latest report of WMO has presented regional level impacts in recent years. In Southern Africa, the start of the seasonal rains was delayed and extensive dry periods were observed. Regional cereal output is forecasted to be about 8% below the five-year average with 12.5 million people in the region expected to experience severe food insecurity up to March 2020. Deteriorating situation of food security has been observed in several areas of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and Uganda due to a poor long/Gu rainy season. Somalia was affected by intense flooding between October and November 2019 and parts of Afghanistan in March 2019. The year 2019 has been categorized as the most difficult planting season in history for North American farmers, with over 10 million acres of crops going unplanted due to extreme weather conditions (WMO 2020). At the same time, farmers in Punjab, in India, are experiencing rain showers almost every month and, for the first time in its history, more humid air is leading to greater pest infestations.

3 Climate Services

WMO spearheads climate services at global, regional, and national levels through the Global Framework for Climate Services(GFCS) established in 2009 in five major sectors viz. agriculture and food security, water, health, disaster risk reduction, and energy. It has the vision to enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change, through the development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy, and practice. Further, it aims to address critical elements for effective provision and uptake of seamless weather, water, and climate services, viz. observations and monitoring; research; modeling and prediction; climate services information system; user interface platform; and capacity building. The majority of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) highlight agriculture, food security, and water as the top priority sectors for climate change adaptation (WMO and FAO 2019). In the area of agriculture and food security, 85% of countries (100/117) identified “climate services” as being a valuable part of planning and decision-making.

“2019 State of Climate Services” brought out WMO in partnership with the Adaptation Fund, the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, Research Program on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security, the Food and Agriculture Organization, Green Climate Fund, Global Environment Facility, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, the World Bank, and the World Food Programme indicates that climate services investments have a cost–benefit ratio of 1–10 (WMO 2019b). The evidence suggests that the benefits of investing systematically in strengthening the operational global regional-national hydrometeorological system needed for climate services outweigh the costs by about 80 to one. It is estimated that improved weather, climate, water observations, and forecasting could lead to up to USD30 billion per year in increased global productivity and up to USD2 billion per year in reduced asset losses. It also points out that Operational Agrometeorological Advisory Services in India have decreased cultivation costs overall by up to 25% and, increased net returns to farmers up to 83%. The crops that benefited most are paddy, wheat, pearl millet, fruits, and vegetables. The economic benefit is estimated at USD7.575 billion per year.

With rapid urbanization, it is important to use combined land goals (e.g., zero-carbon energy, smart irrigation systems, and climate resilient agriculture) to minimize the negative side effects of climate change while securing quality food for a growing population. As per IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land (IPCC 2019), building resilience into productivity and production should be based on simultaneous coordinated actions to improve land, food security, and nutrition; dietary choice that can help reduce emissions and pressure on land, renewable energy, biodiversity conservation, etc. Some of the sustainable actions are delineated as under:

  • Closing yield gaps through adapted cultivars, sustainable land management, that combine production and preservation of ecosystems essential functions such as sustainable intensification approaches based on conservation agriculture and community-based adaptation with functioning support services and market access (Mbow et al. 2014).

  • Identifying Sustainable Land Management practices (agroecology, agroforestry, etc.)

  • Addressing different ecosystem services (food production, biodiversity, reduction of GHG emissions, soil carbon sequestration) for improved land-based climate change adaptation and mitigation (Sanz et al. 2017; Francis 2016).

  • Paying attention to the food–energy–water nexus, especially water use and reutilization efficiency but also management of rainwater (Albrecht et al. 2018).

  • Implementing institutional designs focused on youth, women through new economic 10 models that help access credit and loans to support policies that balance cash and food crops.

  • Build on and use of local knowledge, culture, and traditions while seeking innovations for food waste reduction and transformation of agricultural products.

At present more than USD3 billion is invested in nearly 200 climate services and early warning systems projects with funding from the Adaptation Fund, the Green Climate Fund, the Global Environment Facility, and the World Bank Group. The World Bank estimates that additional investments beyond those already programmed of up to USD billion are needed to strengthen National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and other national institutions to be capable, and fully equipped, to deliver timely, reliable climate, weather and water information, and services relevant for policy and investment decisions. Africa and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are facing the largest capacity gaps, especially with regard to the density of the observing network and reporting frequency of observations essential for weather and climate forecasts and services. Overall, investments need to be more focused and holistic. Current investments are ad hoc and piecemeal and there is a need to use the resources more efficiently to strengthen the global–regional–national operational hydrometeorological system that supports country-level service delivery more systematically and in a more integrated way. In particular, the services need to overcome the “last mile” barriers and reach farmers on the ground (WMO and FAO 2019). There is a need to improve the systematic estimation and documentation of the socioeconomic benefits of investments and the resulting services (WMO 2019b).

4 Agrometeorological Services

Major challenges to agriculture in India include size and trends of agricultural labor, climate change (not mitigating but evolving coping strategies), issues related to organic farming, conservation of ethnicity and biodiversity, multicropping/Integrated farming/crop diversification, value chain for agricultural produce, developing market/creating market linkage—reforms of wholesale markets, restructuring the architecture of Agricultural supply chain, etc. It has also been recognized that agriculture and food security are facing multiple risks like limited water resources, drought, desertification, land degradation, erosion, hail, flooding, frosts, etc. These risks could be managed by efficient Agrometeorological services which can make a significant difference in crop production by assisting farmers in taking advantage of favorable weather and minimizing the losses/impact of adverse weather conditions. Such services address the real-time needs of farmers and contribute to weather-based crop/livestock management strategies and operations for enhancing crop production and sustainability. At the same time, they can play a significant role in sustainable development and climate change adaptation in different parts of the globe. These services can help in making better policy decisions, improving the use of limited resources and enhance crop, horticulture, and livestock and fisheries production. The advisory bulletins include information on pest management related to relative humidity forecast, rising or falling temperatures or high or low winds, irrigation management depending on rainfall and temperature forecasts, crop protection from extreme high and low temperatures, etc. The farmers take decisions for chemical applications, irrigation scheduling, controlling disease and pest outbreaks, and other weather-related agriculture operations from cultivar selection to harvesting and postharvest operations through sowing, planting, transplanting, and intercultural operations. Without concerted action today, adapting and mitigating adverse impacts on various sectors including agriculture will be very difficult and costly in the future. There is a need to spread good agriculture practices and success stories of farmers across the country. The use of improved drought-tolerant cultivars, optimum fertilizer use, integrated pest management, crop diversification with vegetables, postharvest systems, mechanization, and use of Information Communication Technology in agriculture, Artificial intelligence along with value chain approach and market linkages including efficient Agrometeorological Services is the need of the hour for climate resilient agriculture and sustainability.

Government launched project named “National Initiative on Climate Resilient Agriculture” in 2010–2011 for enhancing the resilience of Indian agriculture covering crops, livestock, and fisheries to climatic variability and climate change through development and application of improved production and risk management technologies; demonstrating site-specific technology packages on farmers’ fields for adapting to current climate risks; building up the capacity of scientists and other stakeholders in climate resilient agricultural research and its applications. Climate and early warning information services should underpin decision-making on climate action for adaptation. However, the capacities to deliver and access these services are highly uneven across regions and countries. The challenge is to strengthen the global–regional–national hydrometeorological system needed to operationalize and deliver these products and services at country level, particularly in developing countries, so that everybody benefits.

IMD has a long history of providing weather services for agriculture since 1945 when it initiated “Farmers’ Weather Bulletin” and broadcast through All India Radio in regional languages. It started State-level Agrometeorological Advisory Services jointly with State Agriculture Departments in 1976. Agroclimatic zone level Agrometeorological Advisory initiated by NCMRWF in 1991 was merged with IMD’s in 2007 and Integrated Agrometeorological Advisory Service at district level was commenced. The existing district level Agrometeorological Advisory Services under Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) rendered by IMD through a network of existing 130 Agro-Met Field Units (AMFUs) established in State Agriculture Universities, Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) institutes, Indian Institute of Technology (IITs), etc. are being augmented by addition of another 530 District Agrometeorological Units at Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) of ICAR to extend services to block level (6500 blocks) with outreach to Panchayat level. The weather-based actionable advisories are generated using quantitative and probabilistic information on past and forecast weather of rain, maximum and minimum temperatures, wind speed and direction, morning and evening relative humidity, and cloud amount in different temporal and spatial domain, viz., nowcast (up to 3 hours), short range (1–3 days), medium range (3–10 days), extended range (10–30 days) at block, district, state, and national levels and state-wise stage of different crops in the country. Such advisories are framed by Expert Panel drawn from IMD, ICAR, State Agriculture Department, and State Agricultural Universities. The agrometeorological advisories prepared at district level on every Tuesday and Friday in regional languages are disseminated to around 40 million farmers in the country through SMS on mobile in regional languages on mKisan portal of Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare and Public–Private Partnership mode in addition to other modes of communication like Electronic and Print media, Extension Services of Central and State Agriculture Departments, Universities, Kisan Call Centres, WhatsApp, Website, and Toll-free telephone. The advisories are populated through conducting Farmers Awareness programs and feedback mechanisms in villages by AMFUs and DAMUs. State and District level Stakeholders meetings are also organized for this purpose.

IMD has started generating experimental block-level advisory from 2000 blocks since 2019 and plans to cover all 7000 blocks in the next 2–3 years with dissemination to all farming households in the country using all available modes of communication. In addition to biweekly block and district level advisories, weekly State and National level crop weather bulletins are prepared and disseminated to concerned Central and Government Departments, and other stakeholders. IMD also provides weekly All India and State Agrometeorological Advisory Bulletins, Monthly All India Weather and Crop Bulletins, Drought Aridity Anomaly Maps, Standardized Precipitation Index, Agroclimatic Information, and Weekly and Seasonal Rainfall to World Agro-Meteorological Information Service (WAMIS) of World Meteorological Organization.

Information technology is advancing at a very rapid rate, which entitles the current century to be called the century of information technology. Agrometeorological advisories should make use of all contemporary technologies including community radio and social media. IMD/Ministry of Earth Sciences should bring out specific guidelines and support provide financial support, if needed, for Agrometeorological Community Radio Stations in different agro-climatic zones of the country. There is also an urgent need to make effective use of remotely sensed data from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), Satellites, Radars, etc., different temporal and spatial-scale deterministic and probabilistic forecasts, new agrometeorological products and graphics in agrometeorological services toward achieving the goal of precision farming at field level. Further, specialized efforts are required to systematically measure agrometeorological observations like leaf area, canopy structure, photosynthesis, soil erosion, soil moisture, biological, and related phenomena, pest and disease, direct and indirect damage, phenological observations of crops, and trees, which are generally not available. The service should also address issues of reducing uncertainties, insurance and risk, and provide quantitative information about the weather in different temporal ranges so that the farmers can utilise the information about the likely outcome of alternative or relief management options.

These services have significantly contributed to enhancing the production and income of farming community. A study on impact of these services by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NACER 2015) has estimated incremental profit of the order of Rs. 38,463 crores in 2010 and Rs. 42,000 crores in 2015 on 4-principal crops viz. wheat, paddy, sugarcane, and cotton with potential of generating net economic benefit up to Rs. 3.3 lakh crores on the 22-principal crops. For achieving the above goal, there is a need to expand the existing services and integrate all available tools, techniques, resources, information, and knowledge. IMD has taken several steps to augment the services like:

  • Installation of Agro-Automatic Weather Stations (Agro-AWS) with the capability of measuring weather parameters including soil temperatures and soil moisture at different depths in all District Agrometeorological Units (DAMUs) in the country.

  • Issuance of Block level forecast in different temporal scales.

  • Development of Agrometeorological–Decision Support System (Agrometeorological DSS) for advisory preparation and dissemination (Fig. 8.5).

  • Development of Dynamic Crop Weather Calendars for different crops.

  • Development of Expert system for auto-generation of advisory at block level.

  • Capacity building of farmers through intensive awareness campaign.

  • Developing dynamic feedback mechanism.

  • Extensive use of ICT for real-time dissemination of advisories.

  • Strengthening the use of remote sensing products and drones.

  • Special focus on Agrometeorological services in 115 Aspirational districts in the country.

  • Enhancing collaboration with concerned Central and State Government departments and Agricultural Universities, User agencies, Stakeholders, Farmers Organizations, Cooperatives, Public–Private Partnership, etc.

  • Specialized products and services toward the aim of doubling the income of farmers by 2022 through integrated farm advice for crop protection and appropriate risk mitigation matrix based on experienced and expected extreme weather events.

Fig. 8.5
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Agrometeorological Decision Support System

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IMD still has a long way to go and need to focus on enhancing the accuracy of weather forecasts at different temporal and spatial scales with village/individual farmer as last mile objective and address livestock, poultry, and fisheries issues in its advisories along with capacity building of stakeholders and farming community.

5 Conclusion and Future Scope

The projected reduction in crop yields under rapidly changing climate in different parts of the globe has made crop sustainability and food security uncertain. This needs to be overcome by suitable adaption and mitigation strategies to cope with weather and climate extremes toward the goal of climate resilient agriculture. Effective weather and climate services have opened new avenues and provide appropriate advisory at different temporal and spatial scales with minimal cost implications and resulted in increase in income of farmers. The existing block level services need to be augmented to Gram Panchayat level with an increase in accuracy of forecast and contribute to precision farming. All tools and technology will have to be integrated to make use of scarce resources including collaboration among all stakeholders.

Future Agrometeorological services should incorporate:

  • Technological driven drought, temperature, and salt-resistant cultivars, varietal response to different domains of weather forecasting, improvement in seed, water and pesticide use efficiency, etc.

  • Policy-driven cluster farming, optimization of agriculture land, market linkage, etc.

  • Personalized Agrometeorological Advisory for farmers using artificial intelligence and data mining/big data concept, query-based individual farmer services from Decision Support System for precision farming, etc.