Keywords

1 Introduction

Drought has the greatest potential economic impacts. It can affect the largest number of people as compared to earthquake and floods etc. In contrast, drought affects large geographical areas, often covering whole countries or parts of continents. Drought may last for months and in some cases for several years. Droughts have a direct and significant impact on food production and overall economy. The worst crop-failures are associated with widespread drought. The problem of drought is worldwide, seriously affected man and his activities to a great extent. In Pakistan the menace is equally serious affecting almost one-third of area in varying degree. The seriously affected area amongst them is Cholistan in Punjab, Thar in Sind and Chagai-Kharan region in Balochistan. These neglected areas, if properly managed, are future land bank of the country and may be very productive. Major parts of Pakistan on the basis of latitudinal and altitudinal location as well as seasonal variation of rainfall passes through a dry spell each year particularly in May and June. However, the climatic data shows that recently the dry spell in these areas exceeded over dry conditions of the past 60 years or so. At present climatically these areas are very harsh and characterized by hyper aridity, scarce and highly variable rains, extremes of temperature, common dry spell, low humidity and high evaporation rate, especially during summer when extremely hot and desiccating wind of high velocity blow across these areas.

2 Types of Drought

There are three types of drought

  1. (i)

    Meteorological drought

  2. (ii)

    Hydrological drought

  3. (iii)

    Agricultural drought

The first two types describe physical events; the 3rd type describes the particular impact of the first two types on an area of human activity, i.e., Agricultural production (Coburn et al. 1991; Reed 1992; Kemp 1994). Here a distinction will be made between these types to clarify their inter-relationship.

2.1 Meteorological Drought

It involves a reduction in rainfall for a specified period (day, month, season, and year) below a specified amount. To define meteorological drought one only needs precipitation statistics (Precipitation means rainfall and snowfall).

2.2 Hydrological Drought

It involves a reduction in water resources (stream flow, Lake Level, groundwater and underground aquifers) below a specified level for a given period of time. Its definition involves data in availability and off take operations of the system (domestic, industrial, irrigated agriculture) being supplied.

2.3 Agricultural Drought

Agricultural drought is defined in terms of the retardation of crop growth or development by reduced soil moisture levels. This in term may lead to economic definitions of drought, when, for example: dry conditions reduce yield or cause crop failure, leading to a reduction in income.

3 Quantification of Drought

There is no sharp defined onset to drought. Drought becomes recognizable only after some period of time has elapsed. Even the period of time required for appearance of drought is difficult to specify since it depends on a large number of physical and biological variables (Verstappen 1983; Tewari 1988; Khan 1991; Reed 1992; and SAARC 1992). Drought is unique among all the other environmental hazards. Its uniqueness is in terms of the length of time between the first indications that a drought is developing and the point at which it begins to impact significantly upon the population of the affected areas. The length of such “warning times” varies significantly between different societies. In many countries the warning time is in the order of several months (Verstappen 1983; Reed 1992 and SAARC 1992).

4 Factors Contributing to Drought Vulnerability

Following are the important factors contributing to drought:

  1. (i)

    Location in arid areas where dry conditions are increased by drought.

  2. (ii)

    Farming on marginal lands

  3. (iii)

    Lack of agricultural inputs to improve yield.

  4. (iv)

    Lack of seed reserves.

  5. (v)

    Areas of low soil moisture retention

  6. (vi)

    Low allocation of resources to drought hazard.

  7. (vii)

    Increasing number of livestock with open grazing.

  8. (viii)

    Deforestation etc.

5 Drought in Pakistan

In Pakistan drought has become a frequent phenomenon in the country. Pakistan experienced several drought years 1871, 1881, 1899, 1902, 1920, 1931, 1935, 1951, 2001, 2014 etc. The drought of 1998–2002 is considered worst in 50 years. According to a report issued by the Economic Survey of Pakistan, the drought is one of the factors responsible for poor growth performance. Balochistan especially the western and central parts of the province remain in the grip of drought almost all year round. When monsoon fails to deliver rains then drought emerges. Pakistan is basically a dry country of warm temperate zone. Climatic differences prevail from northern mountains down to the sea coast in the extreme south. However, the country’s climatic character is that of aridity. The Annual precipitation, except in the northern highlands, averages less than 250 mm, decreasing from north to south. In all, more than three fourth of the country has less than 250 mm rainfall annually, and a small portion with more than 500 mm amounts to about 7 % of the area, and mostly that is mountain slopes. About 20 % of the total area has less than 125 mm and it should not be forgotten that lower the total rainfall, the higher its variability as rule (Ahmed 1951; Kureshy 1977; Johnson 1979). Besides this, very low and highly variable rainfall characteristics in most part of the drought-prone areas of Pakistan persist. There has been almost no rainfall situation since the last few years (Fig. 7.1).

Fig. 7.1
figure 1

Rainfall in Pakistan (June, July, August, 2004) (After Pakistan Meteorological Department 2004)

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The temperature recorded during this period has also shown a very high increase. Now this is natural law that if rainfall occurs after regular interval, then not only the underground water increases but the moisture contents on the ground surface also remain persistent (Ahmed 1995). Here the situation is totally the other way round. The wastage of moisture contents from the surface of the earth as a result of the process of evaporation (due to increasingly high temperature) is more than the amount of water received in the form of rainfall. Besides this development the level of underground water has also go down and in the result is in the form of drought.

Drought has a number of short and long-term effects on the ecosystem of the affected areas in Pakistan. Agricultural productivity in most areas of Pakistan is highly dependent on rainfall. The effect of drought in most areas of Pakistan has been controlled through its massive and unique canal network. However, in some areas, drought remains chronic. For instance, Baluchistan Province is extremely dry. Almost half of the Baluchistan has less than 125 mm rainfall. The rest of the areas receive no more 250 mm rainfall. Annually, there is very high variability in rainfall. Drought is also severe and frequent in Thar Desert, which is located beyond the left bank flood Plain of the Sutlej and Indus rivers.

In the drought-prone areas of Baluchistan Province, the traditional systems of irrigation have been developed. Irrigation by Karez tunnel depends ultimately on rainfall to recharge the aquifers. In Quetta valley and parts of Makran, where ground water is accessible, Karez are dug from springs to lead the water to the valley floor. Long tunnels are dug, with the shafts at 50 m intervals, to tap the ground water and maximize its flow to fields, gardens and orchards. Semi nomadic and seasonal migration is a common way of life in drought affected areas of Pakistan. In the Thar and Baluchisan deserts hoarders traditionally graze livestock on desert flora and raise crops in between the dunes. From time to time, drought has forced a large number of people on migration to urban centers and other areas. There has been a wide spread loss of cattle due to reduction of fodder sources. In other part of Pakistan, because of well-developed canal irrigation system and arrangement of storage and supply of food grains, drought has not been so sever.

5.1 Drought Affected Areas in Pakistan

It has been reported by national and international print and electronic media that 23 out of 26 districts of Baluchistan; Thar, Dadu and Thatta in Sind; and Cholistan in Punjab have been severely affected by drought (Table 7.1). It means that more than 45 % of the landmass of Pakistan have been declared calamity hit. More than five million people are facing a famine like situation. Hundreds of people have already lost their lives and millions of families have lost their livelihood. Drought has covered 80 % area of Baluchistan (Fig. 7.2). Apart from other potential, Baluchistan is very important from livestock population point of view. It cator the need of 47 % of our livestock population. Amongst which 40 % have already perished, where as another 40 % is in critical position and is about to perish. As a whole, around 2.5 million animals have perished, while animal mortality rate will increase upto 60 % due to non-availability of fodder and water in these areas. A mass migration is taking place toward “safer areas”. It has been estimated that about 1.2 million people have been affected in Sind and 2.1 million in Baluchistan and upto one million in Punjab province.

Table 7.1 Districts affected by severe droughts in Pakistan, 2003
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Fig. 7.2
figure 2

Drought in Pakistan (After Pakistan Meteorological Department 2000)

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6 Adverse Effects of Drought in Pakistan

According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan, the drought was one of the most significant factors responsible for the less than anticipated growth performance. The drought has wreaked havoc in 58 of the total 106 districts of the country, especially impacting rain-fed and rangeland areas. Causing devastation and loss of human lives in semiarid regions, the drought has eliminated US $ 247 million worth of livestock in the first few months. Given that 70 % of the entire population of Pakistan is rural based and dependent on agriculture for its livelihood, negative agricultural growth of 2.5 % has not only impacted agro-based industry, but displaced a large number of the rural poor. Massive migratory trends have been witnessed, therefore, to irrigated and urban areas. The losses of the agricultural sector will also trickle down to the banking and financial sectors, in view of farmers’ outstanding loan obligations and financing needs of agro-based industries. It has been observed that drought has a number of direct and indirect impacts on the people and economy of Pakistan. Some of the typical adverse effects of drought are listed below:

  1. 1.

    Reduced income for farmers.

  2. 2.

    Reduced employment opportunities for agricultural laborers.

  3. 3.

    Reduced Government revenues and foreign exchange earnings as a result of a decline in agricultural exports.

  4. 4.

    Increased prices of staple foods.

  5. 5.

    Increased inflation rate with in the economy.

  6. 6.

    Inability of certain groups within the population to afford increased food prices resulted in their:

    1. (i)

      Switching to cheaper and less preferred foods.

    2. (ii)

      Reducing in overall food intake.

    3. (iii)

      Taking loans in order to maintain food intake.

    4. (iv)

      Selling their assets to raise funds.

    5. (v)

      Engaging in alternative income earning activities locally.

    6. (vi)

      Migrating in search of employment opportunities elsewhere.

    7. (vii)

      Migrating to a place where relief food is being distributed.

  7. 7.

    Increased stress and morbidity due to migration.

  8. 8.

    Reduced food intake led to deterioration of nutritional status and reduction in ability to resist infection.

  9. 9.

    Drying up of water resources led to reduction in water quality, the need to travel further to collect water and possibly to migrate to better water resources, all of which are likely to increase level of morbidity.

  10. 10.

    Increased competition for access to remaining water sources has led to increase incidences of local disputes/conflicts.

  11. 11.

    Social costs caused by migration for instance break up of communities and families.

  12. 12.

    Losses of Livestock etc.

7 Drought Risk Reduction Measures in Pakistan

Drought does not come suddenly like floods or earthquakes. It may fall upon the country in a localized way and then slowly and gradually spread throughout the whole country. The effects of drought are often for-reaching. Most often the effects are more damaging to the economy of the country than that of floods. Drought management in Pakistan is the responsibility of both Federal and Provincial government. Both have various short, medium and long-term programmes for drought management. Until now Pakistan has no integrated drought management programmes. With a very few exception, there is no regional level authority to deal exclusively with arid zone of different Provinces.

  1. (i)

    It is WAPDA, which makes programme for the development of water resources and power supply throughout the country, including desert and semi desert areas.

  2. (ii)

    There are some special purpose authorities, mostly under provincial government, which undertake studies and research project for the enhancement and up-gradation of the environment in their areas of jurisdiction. These authorities include Baluchistan Development Authority, Sarhad Development Authority, Arid Zone Development Authority of Sind, Cholistan Development Authority and Thal Development Authority etc.

  3. (iii)

    Under short-term measures during drought periods, the Provincial Government declares drought prone areas. These drought prone areas are exempted from various Taxes such as land revenue etc.

  4. (iv)

    Federal Government also provides interim relief and funds for rehabilitation of the affectees. The Federal Government through its National Logistic cell has to maintain a regular supply of food and fodder.

  5. (v)

    The Provincial agriculture departments are also implementing programmes for livestock development to raise good breeds of cattle both for milk and meat

8 Recommendations for Drought Risk Reduction in Pakistan

Drought is an inevitable part of our climate. We have to recognize and accept it. At the same time no practical method for appreciably enhancing precipitation is yet in hand. By virtue of modern meteorological monitoring & telecommunication system it has become possible to predict drought to a great extent. Following are some recommendations:

8.1 Drought Control Plan

Drought control plan is necessarily the work of an interdisciplinary team, comprising economist, agriculturist, hydrologist, geographers, planners and experts in social sciences and health services and many others, as well as meteorologists. The drought control plan should contain provisions for the implementation of specific actions to detect drought and to help alleviate its effects on agricultural production.

8.2 Controlling Wastage of Water

In Pakistan the wastage of water which urgently needs to be controlled are of two kinds:

8.2.1 Flood Wastage

It has been estimated that on the average approximately 35 mafFootnote 1 of water is wasted each year the form of floods. This wastage can be conserved through feasible storage projects on the Indus as well as other rivers as per provision water accord. In this context the issue of Kalabagh Dam has assumed central position in the ensuing debate. One of the best options is the strategy of small dams like China. This could be an effective tool for self-reliance as well. Because for big dams, dependence on foreign loan, experts and companies are inevitable, whereas for smaller dams local engineers and machinery of the national industry can be sufficient. The number of these dams according to an estimate can be 30–40. In this connection the construction of two dams on the Indus at Skardu and Basha and two dams on the Jhelum river are most essential for multipurpose and as carry-over reservoirs to safeguard against drought.

8.2.2 Seepage

Excessive seepage from the gigantic canal conveyance system and watercourse distribution is the second most damaging and colossal wastage. The seepage is not only leading into wastage of water but also wastage of land due to waterlogging and salinity. It is all because of non-cemented canals. It has been estimated that the wastage of water due to seepage is approximately 55 maf each year. The only way to save this huge wastage is to improve the existing canal network and modernizing the irrigation system, such as consolidation of land in geometrical shape and replacement of watercourses by “pipe system”. This will help to efficiently monitor and distribute water after removing all the multidirectional chronic restraints.

8.3 Establishment of Special Purpose Regional Authorities

Hazard management at present is the domain of various uncoordinated organizations. As a result responsibilities are highly fragmented between a number of Federal, Provincial and local departments and agencies ranging from water development, afforestation, income generation, supply of food and fodder, health education and social development etc. The very few exception, where some tangible improvements have been made are Thal and Cholistan part of Punjab. A lot needs to be done in many other drought affected areas including greater part of Baluchistan, Thar, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. There is an urgent and greater need to adopt clear-cut policies at the national level for these dry regions of the country. If we recognize drought as a recurrent problem, then there is a need to establish special purpose regional authorities on the pattern of Sind Arid Zone Development Authority. These special purpose authorities should be well equipped with expertise and resources to work for a permanent and long-term solution of this problem.

8.4 Integration of Hazard Education in the Curricula

In order to educate the public about the adverse effects of drought and other hazards, it would be worthwhile to incorporate hazard information in the curricula of educational institutions. A long-term hazard educational programme at school and College level should be made mandatory. It should in fact put emphasis in the actual hazards, such as drought, floods, earthquakes and landslide. This clarification is important because many government organizations and NGO’s as well important documents like Pakistan National Conservation Strategy have confused hazards with municipal problem such as solid waste, drains and plastic bag problems. These issues are tackling as municipal problem in the west but we consider them as the basic issues. This hazard education will enhance community participation in all government programms related to hazard reduction. It would also be of great help to control deforestation, illegal quarrying, over grazing and similar infractions, which deform the environment and trigger hazards of different types.

8.5 Revitalization of Karez System and Check Dams

To bring the water table to normal position tube well be discouraged near the mother-wells of karez and the age-old karez be revitalized again. If possible new karez be added to the system. The aerial photographic survey of the drought-prone regions also reveals that there was a wide network of check dams for the enhancement of infiltration of the run-off water of highly variable and occasional rainfall. These check dams are now abundant. There is therefore, an urgent need to renovate and rehabilitate these ancient check dams as well.

8.6 Coordination, Training and Research

Pakistan is a hazard-prone country. Planning and management of such a hazard-prone country requires the co-ordinates expertise of earth sciences, environmental planning and governing officials. The coordination amongst official as well as professionals is badly lacking at present. Therefore, there should be proper co-ordination among the experts in the related fields and concerned authorities to combat the recurrent environmental hazards in a sustainable way. It is recommended that to deal with the natural hazards in a professional manner, training courses and extension work must be organized at various levels. Natural hazards Research Centers must be established to deal with all aspects of Natural hazards. Emphasis should be placed on the establishment of climate research groups to monitor continuously the occurrence and progress of drought at least on a seasonal basis. Such monitoring of drought could be used to forewarn farmers, and the government agencies of possible severe drought.

8.7 Desalinization Plants

Desalinization plants can be established in the coastal areas of the country, which could not only be used for pure drinking water but also for the production of salt. If we can manage these plants on a larger scale the water available can also be used for irrigation purposes as well.

8.8 Short-Term Measures

The major problem to tackle in the short- term measure is that of food to eliminate the occurrence of famine. To reduce the risk of temporary food insecurity due to drought, it is necessary to protect people’s access to food through the following steps:

  1. (i)

    Ensuring the availability of food in the affected areas.

  2. (ii)

    Protecting the entitlements of all groups within the affected population.

  3. (iii)

    Some of the measures for maintaining food security during drought area:

    1. (a)

      Price Stabilization

    2. (b)

      Food subsidies

    3. (c)

      Employment creation programs

    4. (d)

      Special programs for livestock’s and pastorals populations (Fodder Issues)

    5. (e)

      Complementary water programs (Railway Water tanks)

    6. (f)

      Complementary health programs

8.9 Typical Post Disaster Assistance Needs

The drought hazard affected population must be assisted to replace assets lost during the period of temporary food insecurity, to re-establish their livelihood. The severity of this food insecurity will determine the nature and scale of the rehabilitation requirements. For instance, if migration to camps and significantly increased mortality has occurred, then a comprehensive rehabilitation program will be required. This may involve health care, counseling, assisting the migrants back to their homes and material support to re-establish their homes and productive activities. Such provision may include seeds, tools, cooking utensils, blankets and support until households are capable of supporting themselves. It is responsibility of the government to make sure that the actual affectees have access to the relief help. Rehabilitation needs should therefore be carefully assessed and interventions tailored to particular situation.

9 Conclusion

Drought is one of the most serious atmospheric hazards. It affects large geographical areas often covering whole countries or parts of continents. Generally, the major causes of drought are low rainfall as well as some intensifying factors. Drought has adverse effects on the physical and socio-economic environment. Meteorological drought is a reduction in rainfall for a specified period (day, month, season, and year) below a specified amount and Hydrological drought involves a reduction in water resources (stream flow, Lake Level, groundwater and underground aquifers) below a specified level for a given period of time whereas, Agricultural drought is defined in terms of the retardation of crop growth or development by reduced soil moisture levels. Impacts of drought are very severe on the socio-economic environment of Pakistan. The drought of 1998–2002 is considered worst in 50 years. Drought has covered 80 % area of Baluchistan Province. In Baluchistan, drought-prone areas traditional systems of irrigation have been developed. The government and affected communities must work together to overcome the problems. It has been observed that drought has a number of direct and indirect impacts on the people and economy of Pakistan In Pakistan the menace is equally serious affecting almost one-third of area in varying degree. The seriously affected area amongst them is Thal and Cholistan in Punjab, Thar in Sind and Chaghai-Kharan region in Balochistan. These neglected areas, if properly managed, are future land bank of the country and may be very productive. There are some special purpose authorities in Pakistan, mostly under Provincial Government which undertake studies and research projects for the enhancement and up-gradation of the environment in their areas of jurisdiction. These authorities include Baluchistan Development Authority, Sarhad Development Authority, Sindh Arid Zone Development Authority, Cholistan Development Authority, and Thal Development Authority etc. The government should involve the affected communities not only in the planning process but it is also necessary to arrange some awareness programs workshops, etc. Assistance should be provided in an equitable consistent and predictable manner to all without regard to economic circumstances, industry or geographic region. There should be financial resources to maintain operational programs and to initiate research required supporting drought assessment and response activities. A monitoring /early warning system can helps to provide decision makers at all level with information about the onset, continuation, and termination of drought condition and their severity.