Abstract
This chapter examines the impacts of climate variability on selected socio-ecological settings in South Asia. A transdisciplinary conceptual framework is presented that blends multilevel interactions in a social-ecological-climate nexus. The overarching objective is to draw on empirical experience to build capacity to make use of climate data for societal needs, i.e., to facilitate climate change adaptation planning. The chapter has two modules. The first module, Climate Change Monitoring (CCM), details the operating structure of real-time climate data and its practical use. The second module, Climate Change Assessment (CCA), examines impacts and adaptation options using a case study approach. Focusing on the analytical process, the authors examine three socio-ecological subsystems, i.e., marine fisheries, a rice agroecosystem, and human migration, using a mixed “tool box” of meteorological data, remote sensing images, primary and secondary socioeconomic information, and a variety of software programs. The results indicate that (1) spatial indicators are useful in explaining a decline in marine ecosystem productivity; (2) local-level temperature variability is closely related to agroecosystem transitions; and (3) climatic variability, especially increased frequency of extreme events, triggers human migration. The case studies highlight the need to employ real-time climate data in the design of adaptation strategies and the requirement for a transdisciplinary approach.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
ADB (2011) Accounting for health impacts of climate change, July 2011, Asian Development Bank,6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines. ISBN:978-92-9092-359-6
Akter T (2009) Climate change and flow of environmental displacement in Bangladesh. Publication of Unnayan Onneshan-The Innovators-Dhaka, Bangladesh
Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2001) Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 28:4499–4502
Asian Development Bank -ADB (2005) Climate proofing: a risk-based approach to adaptation. Asian development bank Pacific studies series, Philippines. Available from: http://www.adb.org/Documents/Reports/Climate-Proofing/climate-proofing.pdf
Ban KM (2008) Statement by United Nations Secretary-General Ban-Ki moon at the opening of the High-Level Segment of COP 14 in Pozna, 11 Dec 2008. http://unfccc.int/2860.php
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (1994) Statistical yearbook of Bangladesh, statistical division, ministry of planning, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, pp 3–29
Banuri T, Weyant J, Akumu G et al (eds) (2001) Climate change 2001: mitigation. Intergovernmental panel on climate change, third assessment report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 73–114
Chellaney B (2007) Climate change: a new factor in international security? Global forces 2007: proceedings of the ASPI conference: day-1, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Barton ACT, pp 20–36
Chen C, McCarl BA, Schimmelpfennig DE (2004) Yield variability as influenced by climate: a statistical investigation. Climate Change 66:239–261
Chowdhury S, Mobarak AM, Gharad B (2009) Migrating away from a seasonal famine: a randomized intervention in Bangladesh. MPRA paper 19224, University Library of Munich
Christian Aid (2007) Human tide: the real migration crisis. Christian Aid, London
Crossland MD, Wynne BE, Perkins WC (1995) Spatial decision support systems: an overview of technology and a test of efficacy. Decis Support Syst 14(3):219–235
Cruz RV, Harasawa H, Lal M et al (2007) Asia. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 469–506
Daw T, Adger WN, Brown K, Badjeck M C (2009) Climate change and capture fisheries: potential impacts, adaptation and mitigation. In: Cochrane K, Young C De, Soto D, Bahri T (eds) Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture technical paper, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy, vol 251, pp 107–150
Deb U, Hoque Z, Khaled N, Bairagi SK (2008) Growth, income inequality and poverty trends in Bangladesh: implications for development strategy. Paper presented at the dialogue on ‘Addressing Regional Inequalities: Policy Options and Strategies’ held on 28th February 2008 at CIRDAP Auditorium; organized by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD)-Bangladesh
Easterling DR, Horton B, Jones PD et al (1997) Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science 277:364–367
Economic Times (2013) Climate change could affect wheat production, says government report. Report from the edition of June 20, 2013 (Accessed 11th July 2013): Available at: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-05-09/news/31641933_1_wheat-production-climate-change-adaptation-strategies
Egeh AO, Ingram KT, Zamora OB (1994) High temperature effects on leaf exchange. Phil J Crop Sci 17:21–26
EJF (Environmental Justice Foundation) (2012) A nation under threat – the impacts of climate change on human rights and forced migration in Bangladesh, EJF report. London, ISBN 978-1-904523-26-0
Eurostat Report (2000) Available from epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu
Fan Z, Bräuning A, Thomas A et al (2011) Spatial and temporal temperature trends on the Yunnan Plateau (Southwest China) during 1961–2004. Int J Climatol 31:2078–2090
Flewwelling P (2000) Fisheries management and MCS in South Asia: comparative analysis. FAO/FISHCODE Project, GCP/INT/648/NOR: Field Report C-6 (En), FAO, Rome, p 56
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations- FAO (2008) Climate change and food security: a framework document. Report by FAO, Rome, 93 p
Fraisse C et al (2006) AgClimate: a climate forecast information system for agricultural risk management in the southeastern USA. Comput Electron Agric 53(1):13–27
Gallo KP, Easterling DR, Peterson TC (1996) The influence of land use/land cover on climatological values of the diurnal temperature range. J Climate 9:2941–2944
Goswami UA (2013) IEA suggests measure to control global temperature rise. The Economic Times. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-20/news/40093864_1_emissions-climate-change-iea. 20 June 2013
Goswami BN, Krishnan R (2013) Opportunities and challenges in monsoon prediction in a changing climate- Editorial of special OCHAMP issue. Clim Dyn 41:1
Hannart A, Dufresne JL, Naveau P (2009) Why climate sensitivity may not be so unpredictable. Geophys Res Lett 36, L16707. doi:10.1029/2009GL039640
Hasselmann K (1993) Optimal fingerprints for the detection of time-dependent climate change. J Climate 6(10):1957–1971
Hewitson BC, Crane RG (2006) Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa. Int J Climatol 26:1315–1337
IPCC (2007) Fourth Assessment Report. Climate change 2007- the physical science basis. Summary for policymakers. Approved at the 10th session of the working group I of the IPCC, Paris, Feb 2007
Jagadish SVK et al (2010) Temperature effects on rice: significance and possible adaptation. In: Advanced technologies for rice production for coping with climate change: no regret options for adaptation and mitigation and their potential update. Proceedings of the joint workshop organized by FAO and International Rice Research Institute-IRRI, Los Baños, pp 19–25
Johnston M, Williamson T (2007) A framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of the Canadian forest sector. Forest Chron 83:358–361
Kriegler E, Hall JW, Held H, Dawson R (2009) Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(13):5041–5046
Kropff MJ, Cassman KG, van Laar HH, Peng S (1993) Nitrogen and yield potential of irrigated rice. Plant Soil 155/156:391–394
Lal M (2003) Global climate change: India’s monsoon and its variability. J Environ Stud Policy 6:1–34
Lemoine DM, Traeger CP (2011) Tipping points and ambiguity in the economics of climate change. In: Working paper series qt9nd591ww, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley
Litchfield A (2010) Climate change induced extreme weather events and sea level rise in Bangladesh leading to Migration and Conflict. ICE Case Studies, Number 229- American University-Web Document available at, http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/Bangladesh.html.
Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333:616–620
Luo L, Wood EF, Pan M (2007) Bayesian merging of multiple climate model forecasts for seasonal hydrological predictions. J Geophys Res 112. doi: 10.1029/2006JD007655
Mahan JR, Burke JJ, Orzech KA (1987) The ‘thermal kinetic window’ as an indicator of optimum plant temperature. Plant Physiol 82:518–522
Mazid MA (2002) Development of fisheries in Bangladesh. Plans and strategies for income generation and poverty alleviation. Report of the Bangladesh Fisheries Research Institute. Momin Offset Press, Dhaka, ISBN 984-32-0401-9
Miller NL, Kim J, Hartman RK, Farrara JD (1999) Downscaled climate and streamflow study of the southwestern United States. J AWRA-Spec Issues Clim Change Water Res 35(6):1525–1537
Mirza MMQ (2003) Climate change and extreme weather events: can developing countries adapt? Clim Policy 3:233–248
Nagabhatla N (2012) Understanding of climate data and it’s interlinked with socio-economic and ecological vulnerability to address adaptation. Research report of APEC-Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, Asia Pacific Climate Center-APCC-Busan, South Korea, 50 p
Nagabhatla N, Kumar A (2013) Developing a joint understanding of agrobiodiversity and land-use change. In: Christinck A, Padmanabhan M (eds) Cultivate diversity: a hand book on transdisciplinary approaches to agro biodiversity research. Margraf Publishers, Weikersheim, Germany pp 27–51
Nagabhatla N, Beveridge M, Haque ABM et al (2012) Multiple water use as an approach for increased basin productivity and improved adaptation: a case study from Bangladesh. Int J River Basin Manag 10(1):121–136
Nicholls RJ, Wong PP, Burkett VR et al (2007) Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP et al (eds) Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 315–356
NRAA (2013) Contingency and compensatory agriculture plans for droughts and floods in India- 2012. Position paper no 6. National Rainfed Area Authority, New Delhi, 87 p. http://nraa.gov.in/pdf/Droughts%20and%20Floods%20in%20India-2012.pdf
Porter JR, Semenov MA (1999) Climate variability and crop yields in Europe. Nature 400:724–724
Rahman A, Alam A, Alam M et al (2007) Risks, vulnerability and adaptation in Bangladesh. UNDP Human Development Report-2007/08. Fighting climate change: human solidarity in a divided world. Human Development Report office occasional paper, 86 pp
Reuveny R (2007) Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict. Polit Geogr 26(6):656–673
Rizzi et al. (2012) A GIS-based decision support system to support the implementation of integrated coastal zone management–preliminary results from the PEGASO project. In: Gensel J, Josselin D, Vandenbroucke D (eds) Multidisciplinary research on geographical information in Europe and beyond. Proceedings of the AGILE’2012 international conference on geographic information science, Avignon, 24–27 Apr 2012. ISBN: 978-90-816960-0-5
Rozum S, John S, Carr D, Sarah (2013) Tools for Coastal climate adaptation planning: a guide for selecting tools to assist with ecosystem-based climate planning. By Coastal-Marine Ecosystem-Based Management Tools Network. Edition March 2013-NatureServe. Arlington, Va. Available at https://connect.natureserve.org/sites/default/files/documents/EBM-ClimateToolsGuide-FINAL.pdf
Sivakumar MV, Stefanski R (2011) Climate change in South Asia. In: Lal R, Sivakumar MVK, Faiz SMA, Rahman AHMM, Islam KR (eds) Climate change and food security in South Asia. Springer, Chichester, pp 13–30
Sontakke NA, Singh N, Singh HN (2008) Instrumental period rainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813–2005): revised reconstruction, update and analysis. The Holocene 18(7):1055–1066
Stern N(2006) The stern review on the economics of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
UNFCCC (2009) Approaches to and experiences in integrating and expanding adaptation planning and action at national, subnational, community and local levels, and lessons learned, good practices, gaps, needs, and barriers and constraints to adaptation submissions from parties and relevant organizations. FCCC/SBSTA/2009/MISC.4.UNFCCC Secretariat
United Nations Environment Programme-UNEP (2009) Towards sustainable production and use of resources: assessing biofuels. Division of Technology Industry and Economics, 15 rue de Milan, 75441 Paris CEDEX 09, France, ISBN: 978-92-807-3052-4. http://www.unep.org/PDF/Assessing_Biofuels.pdf
Wang B, Lee JY, Kang IS, Shukla J et al (2009) Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004). Clim Dyn 33:93–117
Ward PR, Samantha BM, Fiona V et al (2011) Complex problems require complex solutions: the utility of social quality theory for addressing the social determinants of health. BMC Public Health 11:630
Wassmann R et al (2009) Climate change affecting rice production. Adv Agron 101:59–122
Welch JR et al (2010) Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 107(33):14562–14567
Wells Spencer (2013) Southern California Genealogical Society (SCGS). Retrieved 10 July 2013
World Bank (2010) World Development Report 2010: development and climate change. World Bank, Washington, DC
Yonetani M (2011). Displacement due to natural hazard-induced disasters: global estimates for 2009 and 2010. Report of the Norwegian Refugee Council Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva
Acknowledgments
This chapter is inspired from the talk delivered by the first author titled Ecological and Socio-economic Vulnerability links closely with climate variation: A study exploring adaptation using this connect at UNU-WIDER Conference on Climate Change and Development Policy, United Nations University-World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland, 28–29 September 2012. The authors thank the staff at APCC in South Korea and the BioDIVA project for their inputs and support and Andrew Halliday for language editing. The usual disclaimer applies.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this entry
Cite this entry
Nagabhatla, N., Sahu, S.K., Gaetaniello, A., Wen, L., Lee, W. (2014). Understanding Impacts of Climate Variation in Varied Socio-ecological Domains: A Prerequisite for Climate Change Adaptation and Management. In: Leal Filho, W. (eds) Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40455-9_64-1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40455-9_64-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-40455-9
eBook Packages: Springer Reference Earth and Environm. ScienceReference Module Physical and Materials ScienceReference Module Earth and Environmental Sciences