Assessment of Skill and Technology Indicators

Abstract

This chapter uses the results of the macro and firm surveys to show the interaction between the deficient educational system and the high incidence of unskilled workers and their implications.

We find that the major reasons for heavy dependence on foreign technologies at the micro level are low levels of both skill and technology due to the deficient educational system and the high incidence of unskilled workers. We find that the deficient educational system – due to low quality of education – and the excessive share of unskilled workers has led to low skill levels, poor provision of training, serious skills mismatch, weak linkages, lack of a networks and hindered the transfer of knowledge. These factors have interacted with each other and led to poor technology indicators, poor indigenous capability to build the local technology and a heavy dependence on foreign technology. These results prove hypotheses 3.a–3.b in Chap. 1 above concerning the low skill and technology indicators at the micro–macro levels: the serious implications of the interaction between the causes and consequences of the deficient educational system and the high use of unskilled workers. We confirm hypothesis 3.c. in Chap. 1 above that the major causes of low level of local technology are low/a lack of R&D activities due to a lack of skills, transfer of knowledge, networks and collaborations between universities and industry/firms.

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1 Introduction

In this chapter we use the data and results of the firm and macro surveys set out in Chap. 4 to examine the third hypothesis in Chap. 1 about the serious implications of the interaction between the deficient educational system and the high incidence of unskilled workers and skill mismatch. In particular, we use the results of the macro survey to show the causes of the deficient educational system and consequences on low skill levels, poor provision of training, skills mismatch and low transfer of knowledge at the macro level. In addition, we use the results of the firm survey to illustrate that the high incidence of unskilled workers leads to low skill level, poor provision of training, skills mismatch, poor technology indicators and a heavy dependence on foreign technologies. The rest of this chapter is organised as follows: Sect. 5.2 shows the causes and consequences of the deficient educational system and the high incidence of unskilled workers and their implications on low skill levels, poor provision of training, skills mismatch, lack of knowledge transfer, low level of local technology and heavy dependence on foreign technology. Section 5.3 presents the micro–macro views about the upgrading of skill and technology and their potential implications. Section 5.4 provides the conclusions.

2 Causes and Consequences of Deficient Educational System

The results of the macro survey indicate that, at the aggregate level, the official efforts to promote and upgrade the levels of local skill have been relatively successful only in some sectors.¹ In general, there has been a serious failure and shortcoming of the upskilling process, which is mainly attributed to: (1) inadequate availability and misallocation of resources; (2) the deficient educational system; (3) failure of educated and trained workers to transfer knowledge; and (4) inadequate training provision.²

We begin our discussion with the second reason, i.e. the deficient educational system, because we want to argue that both inadequate training provision and the failure of educated and trained workers to transfer knowledge are direct implications of deficient education, while the misallocation of resources is indicated as one cause of both deficient education and the poor provision of training.

2.1 Causes of Deficiency in the Educational System

With respect to the second cause, Table 5.1 shows that the deficiencies of the educational system appear in all the basic, technical, secondary and tertiary educational systems. Major causes are the low quality and internal efficiency of the educational system, the lack of infrastructure (due to inadequate investment/public spending on education) and the lack of teachers and mentors.³ Other important factors are the inadequate assessment and monitoring of educational needs, the lack of modernisation and dynamism and inadequate planning for educational needs.⁴ Finally, the lack of flexibility of educational institutions and the weak linkages/networks between universities, colleges, technical and training institutes are also mentioned, but are of somewhat less importance.⁵ That also holds good for the low involvement and spending by the private sector.⁶ Moreover, the major serious problem for the technical education is the weak incentives for spending and enrolment in technical education.⁷ For instance, the share of public spending on education in GDP in Sudan (0.9 %) is low compared to Arab Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia (9.5 %) and other advanced Asian countries such as Korea (3.6 %) and Malaysia (7.9 %) (UNDP 2004) – see our discussion of the supply side of educational policies in Chap. 9. Moreover, according to the twin-peaks analysis in Ziesemer (2004), which compares the distribution of public spending on education across countries, the Sudan’s less than 2 % public spending on education falls below the average 4.6 % of public spending on education to improve the accumulation of human capital in 1998. Furthermore, from the official perspective, the other important problems related to basic education level include the lack of interest in using modern technologies, lack of attention to update the curriculum in line with the requirements of the phase, weak financial incentives and motivation for teachers and mentors in basic education, weak laws and regulations under the federal government and the lack of enrolment in the basic education system for some of the population for reasons related to war and displacement, and so on. The other important problems related to technical education level include the lack of priority, facilities, comprehensive government policies for development of technical education, the lack of modernisation in the curriculum of the technical education level, the focus on theoretical aspects of technical education rather than practical aspects of technical education and the negative cultural view towards the technical education level. The other important problems related to secondary education level include the low priority of secondary education, the lack of attention to update the curriculum in line with the requirements of the phase, the lack of interest in using modern technologies, the focus on quantitative aspects of secondary education rather than qualitative aspects of secondary education, the lack of training for teachers, the low commitment to regulations and legislation in secondary education. The other important problems related to tertiary and university education level include the lack of attention to scientific research as a prerequisite of the requirements of university education, the lack of attention to training in and use of modern technical means and ways of education (such as computer, Internet, etc.) learning and self-learning methods in tertiary education. In addition other problems are related to the focus on quantitative aspects of university education rather than qualitative aspects of university education, poor coordination between the agencies of education (academic/technical), the mismatch between the outputs of university education with the requirements and needs of the labour market and employment opportunities, the lack of periodical review of the contents of educational curriculum in universities and the lack of harmony, uniformity, consistency and match in the system used in different public and private universities.

Table 5.1 The causes of deficient educational system in the Sudan, 2010

We observe that, according to 92 % of the respondents to the macro survey, the low quality and efficiency of the educational system appears from the low quality at technical, tertiary, higher secondary and basic education relative to international standards respectively.⁸ Important causes are the low rates of accomplishments and motivation at technical, higher secondary and basic education levels relative to international standards, but the problem is somewhat less at the tertiary education level.⁹ Other serious problems are the low quality of teachers and mentors, the low public current expenditure per pupil, the low survival rates and high drop-out and the high pupil/teacher ratios,¹⁰ while less important causes include the high repetition rates.¹¹ Furthermore, from the official perspective, the other important problems related to poor quality of education include the poor curriculum in basic and secondary education, which in some cases do not conform to the students’ abilities and seems beyond the capacity of students and their families; for the students the courses include a lot of useless and extra information, including not only basic knowledge but additional redundant courses in family studies, military, agricultural, and so on, therefore, the large number of unrequired courses come at the expense of the basic knowledge. Other problems are related to the subordination of spending on education to localities, poor working conditions for teachers which make the teaching profession unattractive, a lack of proper understanding of the meaning of quality education, a lack of interest in addressing the phenomenon of dropout and leakage from education which is most probably caused by some important reasons including rising poverty, lack of equity and equal opportunities for competition, lack of commitment to offering free access to education and the educational environment, and a lack of follow-up records for students enrolled in the public educational institutions.

2.2 Consequences of the Deficient Educational System

2.2.1 Mismatch Between the Output of Education and the Market Needs

We find that both the deficient basic (primary and secondary) and tertiary educational systems together lead to a serious mismatch between the output of education and the market needs. In particular, about 92 % and 72 % of the respondents to the macro survey reported that the mismatch is mainly attributed to the deficiency of both tertiary and basic education respectively. Moreover, the follow-up interviews with policy makers and experts show that the mismatch is attributed to the deficient educational system,¹² the lack of coordination and planning to meet the critical skill needs and the cultural/social reasons: preference for white collar jobs and bias against technical education and technical jobs. For instance, the deficiency of tertiary educational system is caused by the inconsistent structure: the share of students enrolled in Sudan in 2000 in all social sciences, humanities and art faculties (65 %) was much higher than those of sciences, math and engineering (35 %). The share of students enrolled in sciences, math and engineering in Sudan is also low compared to both Algeria (50 %) and China (53 %) (UNDP 2002, 2003; UNDP-AHDR 2002, 2003) – cf. our discussion on the demand for education in Chap. 9.¹³

2.2.2 Lowering Skill Levels

From Sudan population census data (2008) and the educational matrix for the period 1960–2008 set out in Table 5.2, we observe the low skill levels, defined by the educational level of the total population. The share of low educated (99–95 %) is much higher than that of high educated (1–5 %) in the total population over the period 2000–2008. That also indicates a minimal skill upgrading, defined by the relative rise in the share of the high educated population and the relative decline of the share of low educated population during the period 1960–2008.¹⁴ In addition, Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics statistical data (2004–2008) on the distribution of the economically active population by occupational classification (2004–2008) shows the low skill level, defined by occupational levels; for instance, the share of the unskilled population (86–83 %) is much higher than that of the high skilled population (14–12 %). That also implies that rather than improvement there was even a slight deterioration in skill upgrading, defined by the decreasing share of high skilled, despite a falling share of unskilled during the period 2004–2008. Furthermore, as we explain below, the low skill levels at the macro level is consistent with that at the micro level.

Table 5.2 The Sudan educational matrix: The distribution of population by educational level (1960–2008)

2.2.3 Hampering Transfer of Knowledge

Our results in Table 5.3 show that the low quality of education hindered the easy transfer of knowledge and external schooling effects. According to the macro survey, only 36 % of the respondent policy makers and experts reported that the incidence of knowledge transfer/external schooling effect is successful, while around 61 % reported that the transfer of knowledge/the external schooling effects are constrained by several factors. The major important factors include: the low quality of training, the lack of awareness about the importance of the external effect of schooling, the low quality of education, the prevailing conditions in the firms do not encourage external effects, failure of skilled workers to deliver knowledge to unskilled workers and failure of unskilled workers to acquire knowledge from skilled workers.¹⁵ Furthermore, from the official perspective, others less important factors or causes hindering the external effect of schooling include the social factors, deficiency in the policy of selection of trainee for training in areas not relevant to their functions and finally, the lack of internal acquisition of education and skills.

Table 5.3 The factors constrained the transfer of knowledge/external schooling effect in the Sudan, 2010

In strong contrast to this view, the results of the firm survey show that, at the micro/firm level, the incidence of knowledge transfer/external schooling effect is successful among about 77 % of the respondents firms. It is only unsuccessful within about 23 % of the respondent firms because of the following: the low quality of training, failure of skilled workers to deliver knowledge to unskilled workers and failure of unskilled workers to acquire knowledge from skilled workers, the low quality of education and the prevailing conditions in the firm do not encourage the external effects within firms.¹⁶ From the firm perspective other factors for lowering the external effect of schooling includes the lack of local physical drive, physical motivation, culture, the high illiteracy rate for most of the workers, lack of attention and funding for training.

This contradicting optimistic-pessimistic view at the micro and macro levels regarding the incidence and success of knowledge transfer/external schooling effect implies that the transfer of knowledge/the external schooling effects is probably successful within firms but unsuccessful between firms and within society at large. This is consistent with our observations from the follow-up interviews that the transfer of knowledge is hindered by both the low quality of education and the lack of cooperation with university sector due to inadequate awareness and lack of social partnership between public sector, private sector, university sector and society. The weak linkages and lack of networks between universities, colleges, technical and training institutes and the productive sectors is mentioned by 83 % of the respondents to the macro survey as factor that constrains the efficiency of educational system – it probably also constrains the transfer of knowledge. An additional factor is that the transfer of knowledge within society at large is probably hindered by the incidence of high illiteracy rate and incidence of high mismatch between educational output of population and labour market. This is mainly due to the excessive share of unskilled workers that probably hindered their sufficient benefit from high skilled workers and population.¹⁷ This is probably also due to a lack of incentives at the aggregate level.¹⁸

Finally, the macro survey indicates that the contribution of both the educated and trained population to promote the local skills is constrained by several causes. Major causes are the inadequate incentives for trainers, the lack of interaction to market needs (mismatch), the lack of information on educational and training needs in the productive sectors and their demand for graduate students and the uncertainties about the future value of investment in education and training.¹⁹ Other important causes are the uncertainties about future skill needs and the high costs to finance education and training.²⁰ Relatively less important causes include the lack of a system of certification of skills acquired and risk aversion, in other words the preference of more certain short term returns to available jobs than long-term skill investments.²¹ These factors probably also contribute to hinder the transfer of knowledge within society at large.

2.2.4 Poor Provision of Training

Both the deficient educational system and the excess supply of low skilled workers lead to a low skill level and hinder the provision of training. Table 5.4 shows that both the policy makers and experts (officials) and firm managers mentioned the low educational qualifications of workers among the important factors constraining the provision of training. Other important factors are the lack of appreciation/information about training, the lack of finance to cover the high cost of training, the lack of trainers and mentors, inadequate assessment and planning for training programmes and the mismatch problem. Furthermore, from the official perspective other factors for the low provision of training in Sudan include the lack of stimulating environment, the lack of interest in development and continuous training initially as a way of skill formation, the low priority given to training, inadequate incorporation of training in the government policy and the strategic plan or programme and the difficulties of coordination and organisation of training activities due to inadequate resources and facilities offered to the National Council for Training to coordinate and organise the public and private training activities and training institution.²² In addition to deficiency in the selection of management for training departments, deficiency in determining and setting the goal and the level of requirement of training and deficiency in the selection of learners and trainees for suitable training programmes according to their training needs. In addition, from the firms’ perspective the lack of training provision is attributed due to the absence of government support, which is apparent from the lack of regulations from the Ministry of Industry and Ministry of Labour to oblige firm owners and mangers to make the establishment of training units mandatory. Further to the lack of financial resources, only a few firms reported the presence of a budget for the provision of training; for the majority of the firms there is no budget for the provision of training, especially, external training. Moreover, in view of the scarce resources for the industrial firms, the provision of training is most probably hindered by the payment of large number of taxes, fees and levies imposed on the industrial firms, which implies their inability to address skill development issues such as training. In addition from the firms’ perspective other problems for the limited provision of training are probably due to: the lack of development; absence of a culture of the importance and need for training given the believe that the nature of the prevailing industrial activities that do not need training; preference for readymade well trained and experienced skilled workers; and lack of important jobs for training for promoting a culture of commitment and affiliation to firms. Moreover, from the perspective of new and relatively new established firms, the lack of the importance of training and R&D over the short-term can be attributed due to their recent establishment; their focus and priority in their early years aims to ensure survival in the market and therefore they believe that both training and R&D are not priorities until after establishment in the market. Moreover, the results of the firm survey illustrate that the low provision of training appears from the following: (1) The lack of an inhouse training unit – only 27 % of the respondent firms have an inhouse training unit; (2) The complete absence of public financial support: for instance, none of the respondent firms received any government subsidies to support training provision; (3) The selective training provision: in the year 2008, the priority for training among the respondent firms was mostly given to production workers, production engineering staff, management staff and services workers²³; and for few firms the limited provision of training is also extended to include the provision of training for university students and (4) The limited type of training: most of training provision is focused to on the job training, and on the job and off the job combined, which are preferred by 72 % and 56 % of the respondent firms respectively. The other types of training such as: off the job within the firm (training centre), off the job outside the firm (specialist training centre inside the country) and (outside the country) are very limited²⁴; (5) The limited sources of information about training opportunities, as most of the information about training opportunities is provided by private trainers (local and foreign companies) and the chambers of commerce. Few firms find information from government and semi government units, other firms working in the same sector and public educational institutions/universities.^{25 , 26} Few firms obtained information about training from other sources for example, firms self searching for training, from private Sudanese universities, few public and private institutions and finally foreign expertise.

Table 5.4 The factors constrained the provision of training in the Sudan, 2010

2.3 Consequences of the Low Educational Qualifications of Unskilled Workers at the Micro/Firm Level

In Chap. 2 we explained that one well-known fact about Sudan is the high share of unskilled workers in total employment. In this section we show that next to the consequences of the deficient educational system at the macro level, the high incidence of unskilled workers also causes several serious implications at the micro/firm level.

2.3.1 Low Skill Level and Skills Mismatch at the Micro/Firm Level

From the demand perspective, the results of the firm survey can be used to argue that firm demand for low skilled workers leads to an excessive share of low skilled workers.²⁷ On the other hand, from the supply perspective, our findings from the firm survey show that the excessive share of low skilled workers has direct implications in lowering skill levels at the micro/firm level. For instance, Table 5.5 below shows that across firms the average percentage share of low skilled workers (66 % and 74 %) is much higher than that of high skilled workers (34 % and 26 %), defined by both educational and occupational classifications respectively. Moreover, Tables 5.4 and 5.5 show that the poor educational qualifications of firms workers lead to poor provision of training – see our discussion above – and a serious skills mismatch across firms, as we will explain in detail in the next chapter.²⁸

Table 5.5 Main technology and skill indicators defined by firm size and industry in the Sudan, 2010

2.3.2 Weak Technology Indicators

From the demand perspective, the results of the firm survey can be used to argue that weak technology indicators lead firms to demand and rely heavily on low skilled workers. On the other hand, from the supply perspective, the excessive share of unskilled workers leads to weak technology input–output indicators across firms. From Table 5.5 above, we observe that a weak R&D indicator appears from the following: (a) The limited R&D activities/efforts performed continuously or occasionally amongst only 20 % of all the respondents firms; the limited prevailing research includes for example the marketing research; (b) The limited R&D activities and expenditures particularly devoted/aimed at improving firm product and to produce a new product; (c) The low R&D expenditures and R&D expenditures as a percentage of total output expenditures. For instance, amongst all the respondent firms, average R&D expenditure was around 0.5 million Sudanese pounds,²⁹ while the average R&D expenditures as a percentage of total output (sales value) amongst all the respondents firms accounted for only 0.2 %; (d) the low number of both full time and part time R&D employees. For instance, a large majority (91 % and 89 %) of the respondents firms with R&D activities have no or a low number (1–3) of full time research employees and/or part time research employees respectively. Only few (9 % and 11 %) of total firms have more than three full and part-time research employees respectively. Only few firms have more than 11 full and part-time research employees.³⁰ Only few firms have (6–10) full and part time research employees.³¹ Moreover, the contribution of research units in adapting the imported technologies is constrained by a shortage of skilled and qualified workers amongst 74 %, 68 %, 80 %, 75 % and 75 %, 81 %, 67 % and 70 % of all firms, chemical, food, metal, textile, large, medium and small firms respectively (see Table 5.8 below).³² In addition, the contribution of research units in adapting the imported technologies is constrained by a shortage of finance amongst 78 %, 71 %, 83 %, 83 % and 75 %, 82 %, 82 % and 65 % of all firms, chemical, food, metal, textile, large, medium and small firms respectively. Moreover, the follow up interviews with the officials and firms managers revealed that R&D activities are constrained by several factors such as high costs and low public and private spending, lack of information systems, and the absence of an R&D culture due to inadequate awareness and concern. In addition the very limited cooperation between industrial firms in terms of R&D that appears for example from the only limited cooperation in exchange of information within specific limits is most probably limited because of the intense competition between industrial firms. Additional constraints relate to the poor coordination between the institutions engaging in R&D activities, either due to the absence of explicit government policy or the ineffective role of a central body (e.g. the government) to coordinate and promote R&D efforts and motivate collaborative research efforts between the industrial firms and universities. In addition to weak network systems, R&D efforts, in particular, are limited across firms because of weak contact and collaboration with universities; this is probably attributable to the fact that the university sector is lacking resources or concern and interest to conduct joint applied research with industrial firms.³³ Moreover, from the firms’ perspective the main problem facing firm strategy to encourage the development of R&D and build of local technology is that research is not a fundamental goal, the primary goal is profit, in addition to the lack of entrepreneur perspective and dominance of commercial perspectives, lack of government policies and support, lack of efficient organisational management and lack of relevant workers. Moreover, from the firms’ perspective the development of technology industry in Sudan is hindered by the acute shortage of local raw materials.

Moreover, Table 5.5 above shows the weak technology output indicator as measured by patent applications.³⁴ For instance, in the year 2008, only 6 % of all respondent firms applied for a patent; the low degree of patenting may be attributable to low R&D efforts.

In addition, a lack of R&D efforts may hinder innovative activities across firms. The increasing uses of technology has encouraged the incidence of product and process innovations, in particular, the incidence of incremental product innovation, namely, improvement of product quality amongst 59 % of all firms. It has also encouraged the incidence of new products, new organisational methods, new combinations of old output, new methods of production, and new processes.³⁵ It has also encouraged the incidence of great effect on increasing total sales and profits, but it has only slight effect on reducing total costs (see Table 5.6 below).³⁶

Table 5.6 The effects of increasing use of technology product and process innovations across firms in the Sudan, 2006–2009

2.3.3 Dependence on Foreign Technology

From the demand perspective, the results of the firm survey can be used to argue that the dependency on foreign technology leads firms to demand and rely heavily on low skilled workers. On the other hand, from the supply perspective, the deficient educational and training system and high supply of low skilled workers lead to low skill levels, lack of knowledge transfer and low capability to build and promote the local technology. The results of the firm survey show that this condition leads to weak technology indicators and dependence on imported technology that appears from the following: (1) The high dependence on the imported equipment, machines and techniques among all of the respondent firms (100 %); (2) The high percentage value of capital equipment to total capital equipment that has been built by foreign companies (56 %) among the respondent firms; (3) The considerable percentage value of imported capital equipment to total capital (45 %) among the respondent firms in the year 2008; (4) The short run plan for 92 % of the respondent firms is based/depends on imported technology³⁷; The main reasons for the dependence on foreign technology are the lack of local technology from local suppliers, better quality and better price of foreign technology in that order.³⁸ Despite the high dependency on imported technologies, it is somewhat surprising that the level of technology used is below international standards amongst the majority of the respondent firms (53 %) and a high level of technology used similar to international standards is limited only within 47 % of all the respondent firms. Moreover, somewhat surprising a high degree of automation through the use of sophisticated and advanced technology is limited only within 54 % of all the respondent firms (see Table 5.5 above). The degree of automation/sophisticated use of advanced technologies is determined by both firm size and industry/activity.³⁹

The dependence on foreign technologies also appears from the reported information on the transfer of foreign technology that is made through different channels. For instance, Table 5.7 below illustrates that hiring foreign skills/technologically advanced workers/consultants and FDI are more common channels of technology transfer, while strategic alliances, technology licensing and joint ventures are less preferred channels. For a few firms other methods of the transfer of technologies include bringing foreign expertise, the use of Internet and making the self search as needed or according to the nature of the work. The transfer of technology, mainly the transfer of technologically advanced workers/consultants, has induced important effects in enhancing firm production but has slight less effect in enhancing the capacity to develop the local technologies.⁴⁰

Table 5.7 The channels of technology transfer and their effects on firm production and development of local technology across firms in the Sudan, 2010

In the firm survey questionnaire the question on the channels of technology transfer allows for multiple answers, assuming that firms may choose more than one channel to transfer technology.⁴¹ Our results indicate that all respondent firms are less interested in transferring technologies through formal licenses. These may not be often requested, probably because of more liberalised and open market policies that led to considerable presence of foreign capital investment and allowed for foreign and mixed ownership (cf. Table 7.1 in Chap. 7 below).⁴²

These findings on weak technology indicators and dependence on foreign technologies at the micro level are consistent with those at the macro level and the interaction of these findings lead to a large technological gap (see also our later discussion in Chap. 6 below). Our results in this chapter and Chap. 6 below verify the second hypothesis in Chap. 1 above that, in the short- and medium-term, Sudan is unable to rely on local technologies and remains heavily dependent on foreign technologies.

Our findings from the firm survey show that both skill and technology indicators, product and process innovations, the channels of technology transfer and their respective effects vary enormously across firms and seem determined by both firm size and industry level. For instance, Table 5.5 above shows that skill levels, technology input–output indicators (R&D and patent), the provision of training (upskilling), the dependence on imported technology, the degree of automation and the use of sophisticated and advanced technology vary across firms and increase with firm size and industry level. Moreover, the use of ICT and provision of ICT training increase with firm size, while the transfer of knowledge/external effects of schooling increase with industry level.

2.3.4 Shortage of Skilled Workers and Weak Adaptation of Imported Technologies

From the demand perspective, the results of the firm survey can be used to argue that a low supply of skilled workers lead firms to demand and rely heavily on low skilled workers. On the other hand, from the supply perspective, our findings show that the excessive share (supply) of low skilled workers and low supply of high skilled workers lead to some shortage of skilled workers, since firms are experiencing increasing demand for skilled workers (see Fig. 5.1 below). We find that the increasing demand for high skilled workers is related to increasing use of new technologies, which has not only raised the demand for these workers in the past few years, but has also encouraged firms to predict a future/long run increase in this demand. For instance, Fig. 5.1 identifies and compares past and future trends of the demand for skilled workers, which vary enormously across firms according to size and industry level. According to 68 % of the respondent firms, the interpretations of the predicted long run increase in the demand for skilled workers are related to change in the investment policy and project plans to increase the level of existing skills, the expansions of production (increase in existing products, new products and new production line), expansion in firms size, work, capacity, facility, activities and employment, increase in seasonal demand, increasing use of technology, modern techniques and new machines, improvement of financial conditions and the increasing need for development and for training new workers. In addition the potential future increase is also caused by the economic reasons related to economic recession, deterioration of the industry and increased costs of industrial production, which implies the need for increasing the demand for skilled workers due to increasing motivation to reduce faults, reduce production costs, in addition to increasing industrial awareness for increasing firms efficiency by raising the quality, efficiency and productive skill of local workers. Further to potential vertical expansion, improvement in marketing opportunities and share in the local and global markets, in addition to the increasing need for specialisation and development of manufacturing industries and increasing R&D activities, implementation of new processes, output technologies, advanced control systems and purchases of new machines and equipment. Additional reasons for the rising demand are the increasing need to meet the new requirements of the market and new phase of development despite its slow occurrence, increasing adoption of international standards and enhancement of production, product improvement, diversification and varieties, competition, achieving high standard precision work and improving productivity and quality of work and demand for more specialised skills in IT. On the other hand, the major explanations for the predicted long run stability in the demand for skilled workers across 17 % of all respondent firms is related to the stability in quantity of production, sales, business, demand and market; as well as to the lack of a plan for critical expansion of product operations, stability of seasonal demand, stability of the proportion of machinery, stability of the use of technology, suitability and sufficiency of the available workers, instability of local market conditions, limitations of firms space, inability to add new machines and dependence on the development of the already available products. Moreover, from few firms’ perspective the major explanations for the predicted long run decrease in the demand for skilled workers across 15 % of all respondent firms is attributed to upgrading unskilled workers to technicians after selection by the competent authorities which imply that the remaining need for skilled workers will decrease due to increase in the qualifications and training facilities. Other factor for the potential decrease is related to the nature of the industry, for example the decrease in textile industries expected to occur as always in the textile industry it is normal to hire unskilled workers and to train them on the appropriate method of production inside the factory according to firm strategy (in that case the use of skilled workers from other factories is not preferred so as to avoid the transfer of the negative habits from other old firms due to potential conflict to new training strategy in the new firms).

Fig. 5.1

Past and future trends (increase or stability) in the demand for skilled workers across firms (Source: Firm survey 2010)

We observe that the expected future rise in the demand for high skilled workers across firms is reasonable since increased use of skilled workers in the past has had significant effects. In particular, there has been increase in firm production, improvements in product quality, improvement in the level of competitiveness in the local market, utilisation of technology and faster adaptation of foreign technology.⁴³ Further to the introduction of networks, the increasing intensity in the use of modern new technologies, new and more sophisticated machines and machinery, updated equipment, readymade programmes applications and specialised production systems and operating machines related to industrial activities and production all imply the need to hire skilled and trained workers to work with them and that led to increased demand for skilled workers in the firm.⁴⁴ In addition, from the firms’ perspective the other positive impacts of hiring skilled workers, scientists and engineers include for example, the positive impacts on those Sudanese affected by the positive performance of foreign skilled workers and experts in organisation, management and administration. In addition, others positive impacts include the technical update, acquisition of experience in manufacturing of products and the introduction of new industrial activities that were not available in the past, enhancing the local maintenance, educating and learning or teaching of workers new ways to work faster and better and increase the need for continuous development.⁴⁵ On the other hand, our results from the firm survey indicate that the relative shortage of skilled workers amongst 41 % of the respondent firms leads to serious delay, slight abolishment/cancellation of project implementation and constrains the R&D units in adapting imported technologies (see Table 5.8 below).⁴⁶

Table 5.8 The shortage of skilled workers and effects across firms in the Sudan, (2006–2009)

Our analysis of the shortage in skilled workers is based on the economic interpretation and definition of ‘skilled shortage’ as scarcity or lack of sufficient skilled workers needed, mainly because the supply of skills (as shaped by systems of education and training) has not responded fully to the rising demand across firms. However, managers may have a different interpretation and understand this as a lack of sufficient skilled workers in conjunction with wages constraints, due to limitations on their ability to pay higher wages for the high skilled workers they demand. This may constitute a limitation and appropriate caution should be exercised in interpreting our results with respect to skilled shortage, mainly because the firms answered the questionnaires do not really make it very clear how they have perceived the shortage of skilled workers and their further consequences.

3 The Impacts of Skill Upgrading and Technological Upgrading: Micro–Macro Views

In view of the above findings and our results in Chap. 6 below on poor skill and technology indicators, it is therefore essential to recommend further incentives to upgrade both skill and technology levels at both micro and macro levels. From that perspective, our findings in Table 5.9 below show that at the micro level the upskilling plan amongst 54 % of the respondent firms induced significant effect in enhancing firm production, facilitating the effective utilisation and upgrading of technologies and upskilling national workers in the firm. But it has only a slight effect on reinforcing the employment for the national Sudanese workers, hiring more skilled national workers and reducing the future demand for foreign workers. Moreover, technological upgrading induced significant effects in enhancing firm production and upskilling via raising skill levels and upskilling national workers in the firms, but it has a relatively slight effect on both reinforcing firm ability to promote the local technology and hiring more skilled national workers.

Table 5.9 The effect of upskilling plan and technological upgrading across firms in the Sudan, 2010: micro view

At the micro level, Fig. 5.2 below compares the plans of public and private firms to depend on national skills. It predicts consistency between private and public firms that appears from the potential strong commitment to completely rely on national skills in the short, medium and long run plans in the large public firm. Moreover, our results from the firm survey and Fig. 5.2 below show that managers of private firms have a somewhat optimistic view regarding self-reliance on local skills and the potential role of both technological upgrading and upskilling in reinforcing the self-reliance strategy. For instance only 90 % of the respondent firms have supported the argument in favour of adequate availability of Sudanese national skilled workers and 94 % of the respondent firms have plans to rely on national skilled workers even in restricted fields. Amongst all the respondent firms the plan for completely depending on national skills (by 100 %) over the long run reached 74 % of the total skilled workers. From the firms’ perspective since there is no difference between Sudanese workers and foreign workers in the industry, it is better to rely on Sudanese workers, so raising Sudanese workers would imply commitment to work for bringing all the benefits to contribute to their country’s progress. This also implies the possibility of bringing in more skilled workers and new foreign engineers for a specific period on a temporary basis provided that they return back after achieving the work.

Fig. 5.2

Short, medium and long run plans of self-reliance on national skills across public, mixed and private firms in Sudan (Source: Firm survey 2010)

In strong consistency and similarity to the above view, the macro survey shows that the respondent policy makers and experts are highly optimistic regarding the interactions between technological upgrading and upskilling and their roles in reinforcing economic growth, self-reliance on local skills and restructuring the labour market at the aggregate/macro level. For instance, Table 5.10 below shows that the large majority of all respondent policy makers and experts predict strong linkages between both upgrading of technology and upskilling of labour force to reinforce each other and to have a similar large significant effect on reinforcing the self-reliance strategy and reducing the unemployment rate. The official view predicts that the effect of upskilling is stronger than the effect of technological upgrading in both reinforcing economic growth and solving the mismatch and imbalances in the labour market and so reducing the future demand for foreign skilled workers. Moreover, upskilling is also essential for enhancing productivity, poverty alleviation and for supporting a comprehensive plan on sustainable balanced development for Sudan.

Table 5.10 The effects of technological upgrading, skill upgrading at the aggregate level in the Sudan 2010: macro view

This consistency in optimistic views at the macro and micro levels, regarding the self-reliance on local skills and the role of both technology and upskilling in reinforcing it, imply that the self-reliance strategy is probably not only a preferred government strategy, but also probably favoured by firms. This is consistent with the observation that 92 % of the respondent firms are private firms dominated by low skilled workers and probably realise the negative consequences of the lack the incentives/interests to rely on upskilling workers, mainly due to high costs of training and high salary requirements for high skilled workers. The majority of the respondent firms probably are confronted with the challenge to initiate new plans for skill upgrading, while few of the respondent firms probably faced with the difficulties to maintain the already existing upskilling efforts. For instance, our findings from the firm survey indicate that the lack of finance to cover the high cost of training is mentioned by 69 % of all the respondent firms amongst the important factors hindering the provision of training and hence upskilling of workers across firms at the micro level (see Table 5.4 above). The respondent firms, which are costs minimisers/profits maximisers, are probably willing to continue hiring cheap readymade skilled workers instead of incurring expensive costs by hiring, training and upskilling unskilled workers. From the firms’ perspective, for a few firms skill upgrading is not important for affecting the strategies of firms because few firms are mainly focusing on private profit goals; skill upgrading is not important because the nature of the production in these few firms does not need for raising the skills and the lack of attention to spend on skill upgrading because of the expectation from the past experiences that both the workers and staff are not continuing in the work for a long time period in these few firms.

4 Conclusions

This chapter uses the results of the macro and firm surveys to show the interaction between the deficient educational system and the high incidence of unskilled workers and their implications.

Our results confirm a part of the second hypothesis in Chap. 1 above: that in the short- and medium-term, Sudan is unable to rely on local technologies and remain heavily dependent on foreign technologies at the micro level. The major reasons are low levels of both skill and technology due to the deficient educational system and the high incidence of unskilled workers and their implications.

On the one hand, from the demand perspective, the results of the firm survey can be used to argue that firm demand for low skilled workers, weak technology indicators and dependency on foreign technology led firms to demand and rely heavily on low skilled workers. On the other hand, from the supply perspective, our findings in Sect. 5.2 show that the deficient educational system – due to low quality of education – and the excessive share of unskilled workers has led to low skill levels, poor provision of training, serious skills mismatch, weak linkages, lack of a networks and hindered the transfer of knowledge. These factors have interacted with each other and led to poor technology indicators, poor indigenous capability to build the local technology and a heavy dependence on foreign technology. These results prove hypotheses 3.a−3.b in Chap. 1 above concerning the low skill and technology indicators at the micro–macro levels: the serious implications of the interaction between the causes and consequences of the deficient educational system and the high use of unskilled workers. We confirm hypothesis 3.c. in Chap. 1 above that the major causes of low level of local technology are low/a lack of R&D activities due to a lack of skills, transfer of knowledge, networks and collaborations between universities and industry/firms.

Our findings show one surprising contradicting macro–micro view. Notably, contradicting optimistic–pessimistic micro and macro views regarding the incidence and success of knowledge transfer/external schooling effect implies that, probably, the transfer of knowledge/the external effects of schooling is successful within firms but is unsuccessful within society at large. This is probably because the transfer of knowledge is hindered by: low quality of education; the weak linkages and lack of networks between universities, colleges, technical and training institutes and the productive sectors; and the imbalanced structure of population and labour market. We show that the major cause behind the low transfer of knowledge/external schooling effect is low educational qualifications, and deficient educational and training systems. The major consequences are the lack of networks and collaboration between universities and firms, low R&D efforts and low technology indicators. These results prove part of the sixth hypothesis in Chap. 1 above with respect to the failure and the factors hindering the transfer of knowledge/external schooling effect at the macro level. But, on the other hand, our findings surprisingly reject a part of the sixth hypothesis in Chap. 1 above concerning the failure of the transfer of knowledge/external schooling effect at the micro level.

Our results prove part of our hypothesis 8.c. in Chap. 1 above concerning the consistency and similarity optimistic macro and micro views concerning the self-reliance on local skills, and the role of both technological upgrading and upskilling in reinforcing it, implies that the self-reliance strategy is probably not only a preferred government strategy, but probably is also one followed by private firms. Though driven by profit-maximising considerations, private firms are likely to continue in hiring cheap readymade skilled workers rather than in hiring, training and upskilling workers with expensive costs. From these observations, our results accept hypothesis 8.c. in Chap. 1 above about the consistency of upskilling and transfer of knowledge at the macro–micro levels.