Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to spatially validate an agent-based predictive analytics model of energy siting policy in a techno-social space. This allows us to simulate the multitude of human factors at each level (e.g. individual, county, region, and so on). Energy infrastructure siting is a complex and contentious process that can have major impacts on citizens, communities, and society as a whole. Furthermore, the process is sensitive to varying degrees of human input, of differing complexity, at multiple levels. When it comes to validating ABMs, the virtual cornucopia of techniques can easily confuse the modeler. As useful as historical data validation is, it seems to be underutilized, most likely due to the fact that it is hard to find data suitable data for many models. For the purpose of In-Site, historical data availability is excellent due to Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) providing us with citizen and community based organization (CBO) preferences, and regulatory decisions being public. For the model, citizen and CBO preferences were decided by coding comments on the EIA procedure so as to allow for quantitative analysis, and then geocoding the locations of the commenters. The end results of this is that, we can literally overlay our simulation results with the actual, real world, results of the historical project. This will allow for a high degree of confidence in the validation procedure, as well as the ability to deal with the complexity of the networks of human interactions.
This research was supported by grants from the Haynes Foundation and the National Science Foundation (NSF award #1737191).
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
World Health Organization: Hidden Cities: unmasking and overcoming health inequities in urban settings. The WHO Centre for Health Development, Kobe, Japan, Chap. 1, p. 4 (2010)
Nelson, H., Cain, N., Yang, Z.: All politics are spatial: integrating an agent-based decision support model with spatially explicit landscape data. In: Campbell, H., et al. (eds.) Rethinking Environmental Justice in Sustainable Cities, pp. 168–189. Routledge Press, Abingdon (2015)
Johnston, K.M.: Agent Analyst. ESRI Press, Redlands (2013)
Duong, D.: Verification, validation, and accreditation (VV&A) of social simulations (2010)
Galán, J.M., Izquierdo, L.R., Izquierdo, S.S., Santos, J.I., del Olmo, R., López-Paredes, A., Edmonds, B.: Errors and artefacts in agent-based modelling. J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. 12(1), 1 (2009). http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/12/1/1.html
Southern California Edison: Project Timeline. https://www.sce.com/wps/portal/home/about-us/reliability/upgrading-transmission/TRTP-4-11. Accessed 28 Feb 2018
Sargent, R.G.: Validation and verification of simulation models. In: Proceedings of the 2004 Simulation Conference, Winter, vol. 1. IEEE (2004)
Brown, D.G., Page, S., Riolo, R., Zellner, M., Rand, W.: Path dependence and the validation of agent-based spatial models of land use. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 19(2), 153–174 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1080/13658810410001713399
Brown, D.G., Page, S., Riolo, R., Zellner, M., Rand, W.: Path dependence and the validation of agent-based spatial models of land use. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 19(2), 153 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1080/13658810410001713399
Pontius, R.G.: Quantification error versus location error in comparison of categorical maps. Photogram. Eng. Remote Sens. 66, 1011–1016 (2000)
Pontius, R.G.: Statistical methods to partition effects of quantity and location during comparison of categorical maps at multiple resolutions. Photogram. Eng. Remote Sens. 68, 1041–1049 (2002)
Costanza, R.: Model goodness of fit: a multiple resolution procedure. Ecol. Model. 47, 199–215 (1989)
Crooks, A.T., Heppenstall, A.J.: Introduction to agent-based modelling. In: Heppenstall, A.J., Crooks, A.T., See, L.M., Batty, M. (eds.) Agent-Based Models of Geographical Systems, pp. 85–105 (2012). Chap. 5
Batty, M., Torrens, P.M.: Modelling and prediction in a complex world. Futures 37(7), 745–766 (2005)
Ngo, T.A., See, L.M.: Calibration and validation of agent-based models of land cover change. In: Heppenstall, A.J., Crooks, A.T., See, L.M., Batty, M. (eds.) Agent-Based Models of Geographical Systems, pp. 181–196 (2012)
Malerba, F., Orsenigo, L.: Innovation and market structure in the dynamics of the pharmaceutical industry and biotechnology: towards a history-friendly model. Ind. Corp. Change 11(4), 667–703 (2002)
Malerba, F., Nelson, R., Orsenigo, L., Winter, S.: History-friendly’ models of industry evolution: the computer industry. Ind. Corp. Change 8(1), 3–40 (1999)
Malerba, F., Nelson, R., Orsenigo, L., Winter, S.: History-friendly’ models of industry evolution: the computer industry. Ind. Corp. Change 8(1), 3 (1999)
Windrum, P., Fagiolo, G., Moneta, A.: Empirical validation of agent-based models: alternatives and prospects. J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. 10(2), 8 (2007)
Windrum, P., Fagiolo, G., Moneta, A.: Empirical validation of agent-based models: alternatives and prospects. J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. 10(2), 12 (2007)
Abdollahian, M., Yang, Z., Nelson, H.: Techno-social energy infrastructure siting: sustainable energy modeling programming (SEMPro). J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. 16(3), 6 (2013)
Anselin, L., Syabri, I., Kho, Y.: GeoDa: an introduction to spatial data analysis. Geogr. Anal. 38(1), 5–22 (2006)
Windrum, P., Fagiolo, G., Moneta, A.: Empirical validation of agent-based models: alternatives and prospects. J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. 10(2), 11 (2007)
Werker, C., Brenner, T.: Empirical Calibration of Simulation Models, Papers on Economics and Evolution # 0410. Max Planck Institute for Research into Economic Systems, Jena (2004)
Law, A.M., Kelton, W.D.: Simulation Modeling and Analysis. McGraw-Hill, New York (1991)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
About this paper
Cite this paper
Wikstrom, K., Nelson, H., Yang, Z. (2019). Agents in Space: Validating ABM-GIS Models. In: Cassenti, D. (eds) Advances in Human Factors in Simulation and Modeling. AHFE 2018. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 780. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-94223-0_20
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-94223-0_20
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-94222-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-94223-0
eBook Packages: Intelligent Technologies and RoboticsIntelligent Technologies and Robotics (R0)