Abstract
Present times are characterized by increasing levels of unpredictability, uncertainty, and instability with a background of accelerated rhythms of change and of long-term economic, but also ideological, political, and spiritual crisis situations leading to frequent paradigm shifts. These circumstances render futures studies and anticipative processes particularly relevant, justifying a special attention to the subject. Taking a longer time to be shaped, the built environment is highly sensitive to current trends and is also implicitly related to the future. Besides, given its influence on people’s well-being and general performance, its optimal configuration may be considered as a general interest issue. Although it has been some time since theories in the field of anticipation were proposed, and under various names, their implementation at the territorial level is of a relatively recent date; hence, there are still important gaps to bridge.
This contribution investigates the possible applications of futures studies, and more specifically of the anticipative processes in the design and management of the built environment, with reference also to other contemporary concepts like sustainable development, strategic planning, resilience, and creativity.
The analysis is set out on the three scales judged as representative for scholars as well as for a general audience, namely, building, city, and territory. Taking the view that the association of built environment design and anticipation is particularly advantageous and productive, the authors aim to succinctly present different approaches and practical experiences in the field, while also providing several useful elements for the further development of the corresponding theory and applications.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ackoff, R. L. (1977). Optimization + objectivity = optout. European Journal of Operational Research, 1(1), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(77)81003-5.
Adobati, F., & Olivieri, A. (2007). Agenda per uno scenario del Vimercatese. In A. Magnaghi (Ed.), Scenari strategici. Visioni identitarie per il progetto di territorio (pp. 212–221). Alinea: Firenze.
Alexander, E. R. (2013). Values in planning and Design: A process perspective on ethics in forming the built environment. In C. Basta & S. Moroni (Eds.), Ethics, design and planning of the built environment (pp. 3–22). Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands. Retrieved from http://springerlink.bibliotecabuap.elogim.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-007-5246-7_1
Ames, S. (2010). The new Oregon model: Envision, plan, achieve. Journal of Futures Studies, 2, 163–166.
Appadurai, A. (1996). Modernity at large: Cultural dimensions of globalization. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Axelrod, R., & Cohen, M. D. (1999). Harnessing complexity. Organizational implications of a scientific frontier. New York: The Free Press.
Balducci, A. (2012). Quale pianificazione per i territori post-metropolitani? Una riflessione a partire dalla rottura del legame tra forme dell’urbano e confini amministrativi. Planum. The Journal of Urbanism, 25(2), 1–7.
Berger, G. (1957). Sciences humaines et prévision. Revue Des Deux Mondes, 3, 3–12.
Besio, M. (2007). Lo scenario strategico nella prospettiva dell’ecoregione urbana. In A. Magnaghi (Ed.), Scenari strategici. Visioni identitarie per il progetto di territorio (pp. 65–77). Alinea: Firenze.
Casoni, G., & Fanzini, D. (2011). I luoghi dell’innovazione. Complessità management progetto. Roma: Maggioli Editore.
Cerreta, M., Concilio, G., & Monno, V. (Eds.). (2010). Making strategies in spatial planning. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands. Retrieved from http://springerlink.bibliotecabuap.elogim.com/10.1007/978-90-481-3106-8
Cetica, P. A. (2003). La scelta di progettare: paradigmi per una architettura della vita. Firenze: A. Pontecorboli.
Chiapponi, M. (1990). Ambiente: gestione e strategia: un contributo alla teoria della progettazione ambientale (2nd ed.). Milano: Feltrinelli.
Cinquegrani, R. (2012). L’approccio per scenari tra passato, presente e futuro. In R. Poli & S. Arnaldi (Eds.), La previsione sociale: Introduzione allo studio dei futuri (pp. 133–148). Roma: Carocci.
Comi, A., & Whyte, J. (2017). Future making and visual artefacts: An ethnographic study of a design project. Organization Studies. https://doi.org/10.1177/0170840617717094.
Cremaschi, M. (2015). Metropoli attraverso la crisi (Sintesi del Rapporto sulle cittá 2015). urban@it Centro nazionale di studi per le politiche urbane. Retrieved from http://www.urbanit.it/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/150930-Urbanit_Rapporto_2015_Sintesi.pdf
Di Battista, V. (2006). Towards a systemic approach to architecture. In G. Minati, E. Pessa, & M. Abram (Eds.), Systemics of emergence: Research and development (pp. 391–398). New York: Springer US. Retrieved from http://springerlink.bibliotecabuap.elogim.com/chapter/10.1007/0-387-28898-8_27
Dobson, S., & Jorgensen, A. (2014). Increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of cities through entrepreneurial urbanism. International Journal of Globalisation and Small Business, 6(3–4), 149–162. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGSB.2014.067508.
European Commission, Directorate General for Regional Policy. (2011). Cities of tomorrow. Challenges, visions, ways forward. European Commission. Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/archive/conferences/citiesoftomorrow/index_en.cfm
Fabian, L., Bozzuto, P., Costa, A., & Pellegrini, P. (2008). Storie del futuro. Gli scenari nella progettazione del territorio (Vol. 1). Roma: Officina Edizioni.
Fanfani, D. (2007). Gli scenari strategici nel dibattito internazionale e nell’approccio statutario e identitario del governo del territorio. In A. Magnaghi (Ed.), Scenari strategici. Visioni identitarie per il progetto di territorio (pp. 15–32). Firenze: Alinea.
Fanzini, D., Bergamini, I., & Rotaru, I. (2013). Sustainability, culture and urban regeneration: New dimensions for the technological project. TECHNE – Journal of Technology for Architecture and Environment, 5, 60–65. https://doi.org/10.13128/Techne-12802.
Fontanella, E. (2015). Modificazione come forma di durata. Patrimonio architettonico e urbano tra cura e trasformazione. In M. Marzo & L. Fabian (Eds.), La ricerca che cambia: Atti del primo convegno nazionale dei dottorati italiani dell’architettura, della pianificazione e del design (pp. 302–314). Italy: LetteraVentidue Edizioni.
Forest City. (2015). Retrieved 31 Aug 2017, from https://www.stefanoboeriarchitetti.net/en/portfolios/forest-city/.
Formia, E., & Celaschi, F. (2014). Estetiche del futuro come estetiche dei contrasti. Una proposta per un processo design driven di costruzione condivisa di scenari futuri. In A matter of design. Making society through science and technology. Retrieved from http://www.stsitalia.org/conferences/ocs/index.php/STSIC/AMD/paper/view/350.
Franceschini, A. (Ed.). (2014). Cinque interviste: Maurizio Carta, Alberto Cecchetto, Alberto Clementi, Carlo Gasparrini, Mosè Ricci. In Sulla città futura: verso il progetto ecologico. Trento: LISt Lab.
Fusco Girard, L. (2014). The regenerative city and wealth creation/conservation: The role of urban planning. International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 13(2/3/4), 118. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGENVI.2014.064500.
Gangemi, V. (2006). Cultura Architettonica e Pensiero Sistemico. In G. Minati, V. Di Battista, & G. Giallocosta (Eds.), Architettura e approccio sistemico (pp. 134–141). Milano: Polimetrica.
Geels, F. W. (2002). Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: A multi-level perspective and a case-study. Research Policy, 31(8), 1257–1274. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-7333(02)00062-8.
Godet, M. (1997). Manuel de prospective stratégique. Une indiscipline intellectuelle (Vol. 1). Paris: Dunod.
Godet, M. (2000). The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and piftalls. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 3–22.
Godet, M., Durance, P., Gerber, A. (2009). Strategic foresight-la prospective. Use and misuse of scenario building (research working paper). Paris: LIPSOR/CNAM.
Gollmitzer, M., & Murray, C. (2008, March). From economy to ecology: A policy framework for creative labour. Ottawa: Canadian Conference of the Arts. http://ccarts.ca/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/CREATIVEECONOMYentiredocument.pdf.
Hanckock, T., & Bezold, C. (1994). Possible futures, preferable futures. Healthcare Forum Journal, 37, 23–29.
Hristova, S., Šešić, M. D., & Duxbury, N. (2015). Culture and sustainability in European cities: Imagining Europolis. New York: Routledge.
Khanna, P. (2016). Connectography: Mapping the future of global civilization. New York: Random House Publishing Group.
Kushner, M. (2015). The future of architecture in 100 buildings. New York: Simon & Schuster/ TED.
Magnaghi, A. (Ed.). (2007). Scenari strategici: visioni identitarie per il progetto di territorio. Firenze: Alinea.
Mascarucci, R. (Ed.). (2004). Vision: territori d’Europa. Roma: Meltemi.
Miller, R., Poli, R., & Rossel, P. (2013). The discipline of anticipation: Exploring key issues, Unesco Working Paper no. 1. Paris. Retrieved from http://www.academia.edu/3523348/The_Discipline_of_Anticipation_Miller_Poli_Rossel_-_DRAFT.
Moser, C. (2013). Architecture 3.0: The disruptive design practice handbook. New York: Routledge.
Mussinelli, E. (2008). Il marketing territoriale dell’Oltrepò Mantovano: contesti, strategie e progetti. In R. Trocchianesi, G. Casoni, & D. Fanzini (Eds.), Progetti per lo sviluppo del territorio: marketing strategico dell’Oltrepò Mantovano (pp. 11–21). Santarcangelo di Romagna: Maggioli.
Nordlund, G. (2012). Time-scales in futures research and forecasting. Futures, 44(4), 408–414. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.01.002.
Peirce, C. S. (2010). The law of mind. In Peirce edition project (Ed.), Writings of Charles S. Peirce: A chronological edition, volume 8: 1890–1892 (Vol. 8, pp. 135–157). Bloomington: Indiana University Press.
Poli, R. (2012). L’anticipazione e i suoi molti aspetti. In S. Arnaldi & R. Poli (Eds.), La previsione sociale. Introduzione allo studio dei futuri. Roma: Carocci editore.
Poli, R. (2017). Introduction. In Introduction to anticipation studies (pp. 1–8). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-63023-6_1.
Ringland, G., & Schwartz, P. (1998). Scenario planning: Managing for the future. Chichester: Wiley.
Rousseau, F. (2015). Prospective territoriale. Etat de l’art (document de travail préparé pour le Futurcamp de la SFdP d’août 2015). Société Française de Prospective.
Sacchi, L. (2010). Il futuro dell’architettura in ‘XXI Secolo’. In Treccani.it. Retrieved from http://www.treccani.it/enciclopedia/il-futuro-dell-architettura_%28XXI-Secolo%29/.
Saporito, E. (2016). A case of complexity in urban planning: The PII Isola process in Milan. In Consensus building versus irreconcilable conflicts (pp. 53–70). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-30829-6_3.
Schoemaker, P. J. (1991). When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration. Journal of Forecasting, 10(6), 549–564.
Schwartz, P. (1991). The art of the long view. New York: Doubleday/Currency.
Storey, D. (2013). Territory and territoriality. Retrieved from http://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/display/id/obo-9780199874002-0076.
Territorio. (2016). In Wikipedia. Retrieved from https://it.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Territorio&oldid=83165368
The New Urban Agenda. (2017). Retrieved 4 July 2017, from http://habitat3.org/the-new-urban-agenda/.
Tonkinwise, C., Kossoff, G., & Irwin, T. (2015). Transition design: An educational framework for advancing the study and design of sustainable transitions. Presented at the 6th International Sustainability Transitions (IST) Conference, University of Sussex, Sussex. Retrieved 9 June 2017, from http://design.cmu.edu/sites/default/files/Transition_Design_Monograph_final.pdf _
Van Der Veen, E. (2015). De Ceuvel. Retrieved 27 Aug 2017, from https://amsterdamsmartcity.com/projects/the-ceuvel#team.
Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379.
What is the Ceuvel. (n.d.). Retrieved 27 Aug 2017, from http://deceuvel.nl/en/about/general-information/.
Wiek, A., & Iwaniec, D. (2013). Quality criteria for visions and visioning in sustainability science. Sustainability Science, 9(4), 497–512. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-013-0208-6.
Wisner, V. (2013). La prospective appliquée aux projets territoriaux de développement durable. TEDDIF (territoires, environnement et développement durable en Île-de-France). Retrieved from http://www.teddif.org/spip.php?article217.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this entry
Cite this entry
Fanzini, D., Rotaru, I., Bergamini, I. (2019). Anticipation in Built Environment Design. In: Poli, R. (eds) Handbook of Anticipation. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91554-8_44
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91554-8_44
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-91553-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-91554-8
eBook Packages: Religion and PhilosophyReference Module Humanities and Social SciencesReference Module Humanities