Keywords

3.1 Introduction

Human population is expected to reach close to 10 billion by 2050 (United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA] 2014), essentially adding a population the size of two India to the number of people crawling on our planet today. To make the matter even more troubling, according to some estimates, global population can grow as high as 16 billion by the end of the century if fertility rate declines by less than assumed (UNFPA 2014). The average population growth rate in the Arab world including Gulf Cooperation Council states (hereafter referred to as the Arabian Gulf States), a trade and political block consisting of six states in the Arabian peninsula: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirate is about 4%, considered one of the highest in the world (United Nations Social Affairs, Population Divition [UNSPD] 2015). The lingering challenge is how the world can feed all those being added every year, without depleting vital resources and without generating pollution levels that can exceed earth’s ability to absorb, all this in light of a changing planetary climate.

There are suggestions (Fader et al. 2013; Alcott 2010, 2012) that we cannot count on food production to keep pace with population growth indefinitely for a number of reasons: (i) the land suitable to be converted into agricultural production is shrinking; (ii) land conversion often incurs high environmental and social costs; (iii) soil degradation and water scarcity curtail production capacity, especially in arid, hot regions like the gulf and the wider middle East. The food security of the Arabian Gulf States relies almost entirely upon food import, with imports typically accounting on average for 80–90% of food consumption (Bailey and Willoughby 2013; The Economist 2012). This means importing countries depend on the political, environmental, and economic situations prevailing in the exporting countries that might choose or be forced to alter the supply of food available to the market (Fader et al. 2013). For example, following drought and wildfires in 2010, Russia imposed a temporary ban on wheat exports (Welton 2011; Trostle et al. 2011). Similar situations have also emerged during more recent food crisis of 2007/2008, when food price spiked caused governments of major exporting countries to impose restrictions and/or bans on exports for fear of food shortages (Trostle et al. 2011; Maetz et al. 2011). For net food importing countries, such episodes represent an existential threat to national food security. In addition, there are genuine concerns that import routes can become vulnerable to disruption if the current violence in the Middle East escalates to a level of instability (Bailey and Willoughby 2013). Oil-rich Gulf States were able to afford food import. However, due to rapid changes in the region and declining oil prices, there are potential risks associated with the complete reliance on food import.

Objectives of this review are to: (i) highlight potential risks of total dependence on food trade; (ii) synthesize physical constraints and identify policy and technological options to meet, partly at least, food security demands domestically; and (iii) discuss the extent to which could cropland expansion can contribute to meeting increasing future food demand domestically.

3.2 Overview of the Gulf Region

The Gulf region is characterized by extremely arid and hot climate (Table 3.1). Warmer temperatures and little or no rainfall during entire year portend to upset the delicate balance of desert life which has been sustained by thousands of years. Rainfall in the Gulf is not only scare but also irregular, coupled with high evaporation rates. Average annual loss of potentially productive land due to desertification (a key vulnerability indicator for environmental change) is predicted to be among the highest in the world (Al-Awadi et al. 2003). According to some estimates, over 90% of the total land area suffers from some form of over-grazing, and close to half of the total land area is highly degraded (Erskine et al. 2004).

Table 3.1 Meteorological conditions, estimate of percentage arable land, area currently under production, as of 2014 in the Gulf Cooperation Council states
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Demographically, human population growth in the Gulf region is progressing very rapidly and is expected to reach 62.5 million in 2025 from just 10 million in 1975 and 30 million in 2000 (UNSPD 2015), suggesting a doubling time of less than 20 years (Fig. 3.1). If current trend continues unabated, which holds true until now, total population in the Arabian Gulf region is anticipated to reach approximately 130 million by the year 2050 (UNSPD 2015). Furthermore, substantially large population in this region is also expected to be wealthier, consume more and more water-intensive calories (Fig. 3.2). Diets have been changing in a fairly consistent ways as incomes and urbanization (Gulf States are almost completely urbanized where over 90% people live in urban centers) have increased globally during the past few decades (Popkin et al. 2012). Animal products, meats in particular, have higher environmental impacts than food originating from plants (Pelletier et al. 2011; Tilman and Clark 2014). This is because raising and feeding animals introduces an additional trophic level in the food chain, and each trophic level leads to losses of energy and nutrients (entropy); only a fraction of the energy and nutrients available at one trophic level is transferred to the next trophic level (Degerli et al. 2015).

Fig. 3.1
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Population growth trends in the Gulf Cooperation Council states from 1975 to 2025 (Sourse: UNSPD 2015 http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/)

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Fig. 3.2
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Gross domestic product per capita (in purchasing power equivalent) $US (Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD)

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On the natural resources side , Gulf countries are fossil fuel resources-rich states, holding according to latest estimates approximately 40% of the world’s proven oil and 23.6% of the world’s proven gas reserves (Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries [OAPEC] 2013). The six Gulf States, which are focus of this paper, represented around 20% of the Arab world population in 2014, but contribute about 50% of total Arab GDP (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization [UNESCO] 2015), and are all economically dependent on oil. Gross domestic product per capita (in purchasing power equivalent) is depicted in Fig. 3.2.

Although not uniform, average per capita income is the highest along with the fastest growing economies in the world (World Bank 2014; The Economist 2012). As annual incomes increase, inevitably there are concomitant increases in per capita daily demand for meat protein consumption (Fig. 3.3). As a result of brisk economic development in the Gulf region, water demand for domestic and industrial uses has exploded in recent decades. A wealthier and richer population with changing diet preferences to higher meat consumption whose production requires huge quantities of already diminishing water resources is creating mounting pressure on water resources. Khan and Hanjra (2009) estimated that meat production requires several multiples of water (4000–15,000 l/kg) than grain production (1000–2000 l/kg) to meet daily nutritional energy needs. Similarly, an estimated 2.5–10 times more energy is required to produce the same amount of calorie energy and protein from livestock than grain (IFAD 2009).

Fig. 3.3
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Average consumption trends of protein food of animal origin from 1992 to 2014

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Abundant availability of energy resources, accompanied with government policies of subsidies, has naturally encouraged a culture of wasteful consumption patterns, with little or no regard to conservation practices. The six Gulf countries now consume more primary energy than the whole of Africa (Lahn et al. 2013), yet they have just one-twentieth of that continent’s population. Although the Gulf region contains only 0.6% of global population, it contributes about 2.4% of the global greenhouse gas emissions (Raouf 2008). As a result of rapid population growth , urbanization, cheap energy, and high standard of living, it is not surprising that the two largest per capita CO2 emitting countries in the world are located in the Gulf region; 40.3 Mt and 31.3 Mt per capita for Qatar and Kuwait, respectively (World Bank 2010). Such an excessively high levels of energy consumption, causing large amounts of greenhouse gases and other pollutant emissions, should make the Gulf region a significant contributor to global climate changes. This is especially relevant given the fact that the new climate treaty (COP 21) designed to replace Kyoto protocol finalized in Paris in December 2015, not only developed nations are required to cut greenhouse gases, but also developing nations are required to commit to do something about cutting their greenhouse gases contributions; actions that are sure to have an impact on the way food is produced. A key challenge for the Gulf in the next decade and beyond will, therefore, be to manage energy, water, and food resources to ensure both high living standards and sustainable growth in the long term. Food import has played a critical role in compensating local food deficit. This review paper contributes to an informed debate on interconnected challenges of meeting food demands under limited amount of land and water resources available and suitable for crop production .

3.3 Risks of Food Imports

Generally speaking, food security can be met through domestic production, import capacity (food stock) and, in extreme cases, food aid. Food security of the Arabian Gulf nations rests almost entirely upon imports typically account for up to 90% food consumption (Bailey and Willoughby 2013). Although the Arabian Gulf countries are not unique in this regard (e.g. Singapore is similarly dependent on food import), food security assumes particular political significance in the Gulf for two main reasons. Firstly, there are genuine concerns that import routes (Fig. 3.4) can become vulnerable to disruption or closure in the event current violence escalates within the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region (Bailey and Willoughby 2013), and pirate activities in the horn of Africa off the gulf of Aden intensify. Secondly, near total economic dependence on fossil fuel energy within the Arabian Gulf States means that food imports are financed through energy exports, leaving these countries exposed to volatility of both oil and import prices, or the exhaustion of reserves, or a combination of both. It is worth emphasizing here that if food price shock occurs concurrently with oil price hikes as they did in 2007–2008, oil producers are insulated. Consequently, the main concern for the Gulf nations during 2007/2008 food crises was not so much with food prices increases as much as it was with the food exporters; India, Argentine and Russia, for example, hinted to restrict/ban food export out of fear for their domestic food security, which put a shock notice on food importing countries like Gulf states. Another words, otherwise oil-rich nations in the Gulf region faced real possibility where money may not buy bread, and the unimaginable horrors this can cause .

Fig. 3.4
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Risk entry points through which 75-80% of food imports from North America, South America, Europe, and black Sea are shipped to the Gulf Cooperation Council (Source: www.chathamhouse.org)

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Although Arabian Gulf populations benefit from a wide range of support measures designed to ensure food remains affordable, prices fluctuations are likely to remain a concern as oil prices are collapsing. Consequently, policy -makers have now become increasingly concerned about the risk of a deteriorating trade balance should oil and food prices decouple; food prices remaining high while oil prices tumble. This scenario vividly brings home the conclusion that even the richest societies can face growing food security problems that should not be underestimated. In the case oil prices were to remain at current levels for a protracted period of time, the governments will eventually respond by lowering or slashing expenditure increases. As a matter of fact, having spent lavishly when oil prices were high, oil producers are now tightening its belt and embracing reform by slashing expenditures to deal with huge budget deficit. Looking forward, it may become cheaper and more food secure to refocus the attention on producing food from domestic farming. Responding to these challenges, some Gulf countries have initiated policies for a self-sufficiency as is being implemented for example in Qatar (Qatar National Food Security Program 2011).

3.4 Constraints of Food Production

Environmental resources necessary for agriculture production to support society’s growing demands are not evenly distributed. While rich in energy, the Gulf countries do not have natural conditions favorable for field crop production (Table 3.1). This region is the driest on earth, containing only 1% of the world’s freshwater resources (Maddocks et al. 2015; Qadir et al. 2007). High temperatures limit yields for many crops, while annual rainfall averaging typically less than 100 mm/year (Table 3.1), is well below that required for rain-fed crop production (e.g. wheat requires around 600–650 mm per year in hot climates) (Laaboudi and Mouhouche 2012).

Renewable freshwater resources are among the lowest in the world (Qadir et al. 2007; Amer 2006; Rosegrant et al. 2002; Cosgrove and Rijsberman 2000). Like the rest of the world, Gulf countries have to produce more food not only from same amount of land, but a land that has been degraded and water resources stressed or near depletion point (Maddocks et al. 2015). The agricultural sector, which consumes close to 90% of the water in the Gulf region (International Fund for Agricultural Development [IFAD] 2009; Qadir et al. 2007), is currently coming under extreme pressure from multiple directions: (1) to produce more food locally to help reduce enormous food imports bill, estimated to be US$28 billion annually (UNDP 2008); (2) the agricultural sector is under mounting pressure to divert increasingly larger quantities of water resources that are now used in agriculture to cities and urban centers for domestic consumption. The total domestic water demand is expected to double by 2025, making it necessary to either divert water from the agricultural sector or resort to expensive desalination technologies, with its serious consequences in respect to resources depletion and progressive ecological degradation. Soils are fragile where close half of the total land area is highly degraded (Erskine et al. 2004), and over 95% of land on the Arabian peninsula is subject to some form of land degradation and desertification (Al-Awadhi et al. 2003).

To make the situation even more troubling, the region will be confronted with even more severe water shortages as temperature rises due to global warming according to a recent and widely publicized study (Pal and Eltahir 2016). Inevitably, this will lead to an intense competition for water among different sectors, most likely, impeding renewed efforts for food security. Managing these competing demands in a way consistent with the principles of sustainability (World Commission on Environment and Development [WCED] 1987; United Nations [UN] 2015) is one of the greatest challenges facing today’s society. In the following sections, major constraints and plausible strategies to overcome are discussed in greater detail.

3.5 Food and Water

Arabian gulf states top the list of 206 nations with severe water scarcity: Four out of the six Gulf member states are rated among the 10 most water scarce countries in the world, with Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia ranked as first, third, fifth and eighth water deficient countries, respectively (Amer 2006). According to IFAD (2009), by 2025, the per capita water supply will fall to approximately 500 m3 per capita per year, or 15% of what it used to be in 1960, when it stood at 3300 m3 per capita per year. High population growth rates in the region (Fig. 3.1), accompanied higher rate of per capita income than in anywhere in the world (Fig. 3.2), consumption of fresh water is excessively high, making it difficult, if not impossible, sufficient amount of water to be allocated to agriculture. Another hidden linkage of the water-food nexus, which may be most pronounced in this region, is that high standard of living accompanied with exceptionally high per capita income (Fig. 3.2), is increasing demand for consumption habits to shift towards more water-intensive dairy/meat consumption (Fig. 3.3).

While the linkages between water and agriculture have always existed, it is only recently that they have become more recognized with intense renewed interest (Tidwell 2016; Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO] 2015a). So far however, this water stressed but energy-rich Gulf region uses their vast financial resources from oil and gas wealth to meet water demands. Following sections elaborate different sources of water and their various uses .

3.5.1 Groundwater Resources

Human dependence on groundwater has increased globally, with groundwater supplying over half the world’s fresh water withdrawals including up to 20% of irrigated agriculture, 75–90% of drinking water in some countries (Aureli and Ganoulis 2005; United Nations 2003). Gulf countries are extremely dry with little or no rain (Table 3.1) and groundwater is the only natural resource and intensively used for agricultural purposes, the largest consumer of water in all Gulf countries, averaging between 70–90% of total water withdrawals (Saif et al. 2014).

Acutely aware of the real possibility that the region may experience an absolute water poverty situation in the near future, Gulf Arab states have undertaken a variety of measures to save what is left of heavily mined groundwater resources. The situation in Saudi Arabia is rather peculiar and, therefore, deserves an elaboration. Saudi Arabia had managed to become self-sufficient of wheat production in late 1980s and early 1990s through the expansion of irrigation by tapping non-renewable fossil groundwater and subsidizing farmers (Saif et al. 2014; Yang et al. 2003). Agriculture was greatly expanded to establish food self-sufficiency for the fast growing population, without regard to the long-term sustainability of huge amount of water withdrawals in an otherwise arid ecosystem. The environmental costs in terms of depleting groundwater resources and land degradation suggest that more sustainable agricultural production systems must be sought. After the untold ecological costs have become clear, Saudi authorities felt it is less costly to import cereal grains, phasing out subsidies of wheat cultivation as a policy measure to save what is left of the depleting precious groundwater resources. As a result of this policy shift, Saudi Arabia cereal import rose from 6.5 million tons in 2003 to 14.8 million tons in 2013 (Fig. 3.5), an increase of 125%. Other Gulf States followed similar trend of increasing cereal import (Fig. 3.5) and other agricultural goods and industrial imports. An important lesson from this experience is that the renewed interests for increasing domestic food production in the region must be integrated with sustainable practices designed to minimize the adverse environmental impact. At the heart of the question of food-water nexus is whether water can be made more productive through various cropping systems and water management schemes and, hence, greater domestic food security.

Fig. 3.5
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Cereal import trends in the Gulf States over the last decade

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3.5.2 Desalinization

The concomitant growth of urbanization and population, coupled with the rise in the living standards, have caused domestic and industrial water consumption to increase significantly. Energy wealth has allowed Gulf States to generate freshwater from the sea via desalination to somewhat halt groundwater mining. To meet increasing domestic water demand, Gulf States, Saudi Arabia in particular where about 65% of Gulf population lives, is the world’s largest producer of desalinated water, and there are plans to double desalination capacity over the next decade. Currently, it accounts for 10% to 20% energy consumption in Saudi Arabia (Lahn et al. 2013). Given the linkages between energy and water, energy availability is a potential tool for Gulf countries to meet water demands through desalination. The challenge here is that desalination is very costly and environmentally destructive, which raise questions whether or not it can be a sustainable practice in the long run. A major environmental problem of water desalination is the production of a flow of brine containing the salts removed from the intake water and chemical discharges (eutrophication) into the receiving environments. Furthermore, the costs of desalinated water are still too high for the full use of this resource in irrigated agriculture. In regards to energy consumption, unless alternative sources of energy are found (Parkinson et al. 2016) and energy conservation measures are implemented, the overall demand for fossil fuel for power, industry, transportation and desalination are estimated to grow from 3.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2010 to 8.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 in Saudi Arabia alone (Lahn et al. 2013). If this is correct and current trends in energy consumption for various uses continue, the sustainability of desalinated water for agricultural pusposes is surely questionable. Consequently, other practicable technological alternatives must be explored.

3.5.3 Improved Irrigation Technology

Environmental conditions are not favorable for farming due to water scarcity, high temperature, among other factors. Worldwide, water efficiency in irrigation tends to be low, with averages in the range of 25–50% (Tiwari and Dinar 2001). Furthermore, in arid regions water productivity is far below its potential and there is a room for improved efficiency. Measures that reduce evaporation can generate real water savings, especially in areas like Gulf region where evaporative losses from the commonly used sprinkler irrigation systems are excessively high. Modernized irrigation technology needs to be adopted to achieve better irrigation efficiency and, therefore, saving water in response declining water supply, competing demands, or a combination of these and other factors. The rates of adoption of improved technologies and management practices whose primary objective is to apply the right amount of water at the right time while maintaining the higher yields attributable to irrigation is expected to be variable; it requires training to acquire new skills. Unlike presently used irrigation techniques (sprinkler), investing in water saving technologies can boost crop production from the same amount of cropland. On the hand, promotion of conventional crops, such as date palms, which are tolerant to harsh soil and climatic conditions coupled with water saving/efficient techniques, can help to achieve food security goals.

3.5.4 Transportation of Water

To meet the present and future water demands of arid region, the available options are limited to (i) either investing in large scale seawater desalination installations (as discussed above), or (ii) long distance water transfer from other water rich regions/countries. For example, in California, water from the abundant north of the state travels hundreds of kilometers in order to meet demand in Los Angeles, a region of increasing physical water scarcity (Water and the West 2013). The need for water transfers is expected to increase as the population and economy of the region grow. Practically however, interregional water transportation projects are still in their infancy (Qadir et al. 2007). Furthermore, in addition to technological and economic challenges geopolitical issues associated with the fact that many water resources are shared among nations as a common resource pool can derail this option to become a success in the scale needed.

Another important form of water transport is what is termed “virtual water”. In our globalized world, food for billions of people is being produced with land and water resources located in countries that are sometimes thousands of kilometers away in which these materials are consumed (Fader et al. 2013). The water that is used for the production of imported food is termed “virtual water” by Allan (1998). Virtual water is a vital component of water security in the Gulf region through water-intensive agricultural import and (Saif et al. 2014). A look at the existing literature shows that virtual water has always been suggested as a means of overcoming water shortage in water scarce countries. Although no studies have so far examined the amounts of virtual water flows into the Gulf countries, global estimates suggest that trade in cereals, the dominant food imports , and other crops as virtual water amounts in average to some 64% of total virtual water trade, while animal products amounts to about 25%, and other about 11% (El-Sadek 2010). Cereal grains are major carriers of virtual water in the countries where food is imported to. Wheat is the single largest contributor (30%) to the global virtual water export, followed by soybeans (17%), rice (15%), and maize (9%) (Hoekstra and Chapagain 2007).

3.6 Land Resource Constraint

3.6.1 Expansion of Land Under Cultivation

In the past, an obvious solution to meet growing food demands has been to bring more land into cultivation. It has been argued that agriculture could meet the growing demand to some extent, because production capacity (both in volume and area) is expected to increase in the future. FAO projections, for the period of 1999–2030, estimate an increase of global agricultural production by 56%, with arable land expansion accounting for 21% of production growth in developing countries (FAO 2009). However, such an increase requires high inputs of resources (such as water), which are severely scarce in the Gulf region. The increasing meat production and consumption on a global scale also influences land use; meat production requires 80% of the amount of agricultural land, while it accounts only 15% of the total food consumption (Van Vuuren and Faber 2009). Looking forward, while the shares of grains and other staple crops are expected to decline, those of vegetables, fruits , meat, dairy, and fish will increase.

Globally, agriculture is the single largest use of land on the planet, occupying altogether about 38–40% of earth’s terrestrial surface (FAO 2015b; Ramankuty et al. 2008). Much of the remaining parts of the terrestrial surface are covered by deserts, cities (urbanization), and lands unfit for agriculture (FAO 2012; Ellis et al. 2010). Accurate data on land resources available for expansion of agricultural production is severely lacking in the Arabian Gulf states. World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank (2015) estimates that Arable land per capita in all Gulf countries is less than 100 m2, except Saudi Arabia where it is about 1000 m2 (Table 3.2). Rough estimates from various sources suggest that currently there is no shortage of arable that can be brought under cultivation to enhance domestic food production. Roughly, 52 million ha (of which only 1.7% or 4.4 million ha are currently under cultivation) of the total land area was potentially cultivable in 2000, but that figure decreased to nearly 1% (Table 3.1), due to other land use demands such expansion of urbanization. We should also state here that region’s arid and hot climate (Table 3.1), and other biotic and abiotic factors such as low soil fertility, salinity are natural limitations for the level of productivity (yield) that can be achieved. Despite this, presently scarcity of water (not land as much) is the most important factor impeding more land to be brought under cultivation. The lingering question is whether yield growth rates can match the growth in demand over the coming decades, without further degrading environmental quality and subsequently compromising long-term sustainability .

Table 3.2 Area of land under cereal production (ha) harvested, yield (t/ha), and production (t) in 2002 and 2011
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3.6.2 Vertical Farming

Countries in the Gulf and the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will have to find innovative ways to boost crop production if they were not to continue to be more reliant on food imports. Efforts to produce more food locally require both a vertical and a horizontal expansion of agriculture that will increase productivity per hectare and the total area of cultivated lands. According to FAO (2015a), the world may be heading towards shortages of suitable agricultural land, indicating that less new agricultural land will be opened up than in the past and, therefore, other alternative options must be explored. Vertical farming is a practice of growing plants greenhouse, where all environmental factors can be controlled. This practice has recently become increasing popular for growing food in many parts of the world. Land degradation will not be a problem because the food will be grown hydroponically, and that only a fraction of the amount of water and nutrients will be needed compared with conventional farming (The Economist 2010). However, there are a lot of agronomic and engineering challenges that need to be overcome, requiring heavy investment in technology. Fortunately, the region has the financial ability to adopt efficient technologies, skills and resources needed to carry out such an expansion .

3.6.3 Renting Agricultural Lands Overseas

Access to land with agricultural production suitability is an essential component of meeting food security demands. The situation in the Gulf States is that, as shown in Table 3.1, arable land can be described as the second factor of production in shortest supply for agriculture after water. Therefore, the additional cropland that needs to be irrigated is limited by water supply as detailed above. Fortunately for the Arab Gulf states, financial wealth from oil and gas supplies can allow them to grow food in otherwise inhospitable environments, and purchase agricultural lands abroad to increase their food security. Following the 2007–2008 food price crisis, these nations implemented various initiatives to invest in agricultural production overseas as a strategy to secure supply and reduce reliance on international markets. Investors from Gulf countries have become increasingly interested in African agricultural land and have started to lease large areas of land for commercial agricultural production (Shah 2010). The pattern is likely to continue due to increasing demand for food and scarcity of water and land. However, it is critically important that these agreements are done in an environmentally and socially (ethically) responsible way, so as not to be viewed as a land clutch. We argue that there is a risk that burden of food insecurity in the investing countries might be unduly transferred to the host countries. This concern can best be addressed by what Shah (2010) termed as a “shared-benefit model” that provides the basics for responsible and sustainable agricultural development partnership.

3.6.4 Closing the Gap Yield

Globally, crop production has benefited from a steady yield increase (Godfray et al. 2010; Limbin 2012). However, significant yield gaps remain across various farming systems , indicating a potential yield gains through alleviation of nutrient and water deficiencies (Mueller et al. 2012; Global Yield Gap Atlas 2015). Yield gaps are defined as the gap between the yields currently being achieved by farmers and the yields that are attainable if existing varieties, technologies and farming practices are adopted (Van Ittersum et al. 2013). Yield gaps vary widely among the regions (Foley et al. 2011; van Ittersum et al. 2013). There are many reasons why a yield gap might exist and it is not as simple as farmers not being willing or incapable to adopt a set of technologies and practices. Consequently, increasing production on existing agricultural land by managing available resources more efficiently can be postulated as a key part of a solution and should be high on the Gulf food security policy agenda, given limited land and water resources.

Attaining high grain production while minimizing environmental cost (sustainable intensification, SI) by integrating the ecological management practices proved to be ecologically efficient based on numerous studies in recent years (Zhao et al. 2016; Pretty et al. 2011). Increasing water resources constraints and degradation of soil mean that the food demands of a growing and more affluent global population will have to be met with fewer resources (efficiency) in a world where nearly a quarter of global land has been affected by degradation, mostly in arid regions, which equals a one percent loss in global land area annually – an area which could produce 20 million tons of grain per year (1 % of global production) (International Food Policy Research Institute [IFPRI 2011]; UNCCD 2011).

There are substantial differences in crop yields between high-income (3.50 t/ha) and low-income (1.82 t/ha) countries (FAO 2014); almost two -folds. As shown in Table 3.2, there is a substantial yield improvements in all Gulf countries in recent years, with their yield matching or exceeding the yield production of the highly developed countries like western Europe (6.648 t/ha) and USA (6.819 t/ha) for 2011. These results must, however, be interpreted cautiously though, as yield values for UAE in 2011 (Table 3.2) appears to be erroneous and needs further verification. Same is true for Kuwait and Oman where yield values extracted from FAO < http://faostat3.fao.org/compare/E> appears to be unrealistically high. There are several ways to improve resource efficiency, including more “crop per drop of water”, minimizing supply chain wastes and losses; changing consumption patterns (e.g. towards less meat intensive diets, or less household food waste). The trend however, is that most policy strategies tend to emphasize technological innovations rather than having policy instruments to affect consumer behavior, especially in a region where food waste is so rampant.

Food security problems, like any other environmental and social problem, can only be met sustainably if water, energy , and other resources input are used more efficiently on the presently cultivated land. Several studies have emphasized the potential for efficiency improvement for water (Verburg et al. 2013; Graus et al. 2011), energy (Barker et al. 2007; Cullen et al. 2011) and land (Godfray et al. 2010; Neumann et al. 2010; Smith et al. 2010). While studies have looked into the efficiency potential for these individual resources globally (Van Vuuren and Faber 2009), no studies have looked at the impacts of improved efficiency and the implications of such a nexus approach for addressing food security in the gulf region.

3.7 Food and Energy: Comparative Advantage for the Gulf States

Energy and water are inextricably linked to the production, transportation, and preparation of agricultural goods. Worldwide, the food sector accounts for around 30% of world’s total energy consumption (FAO 2011). The oil-rich Arabian Gulf states have key advantages in addressing their food security challenges with their enormous oil wealth. Availability of cheap energy can provide a comparative advantage for the Gulf region to refocus their attention on ways in which domestic food production can be made possible within the limits and opportunities afforded by abundance of energy.

There is a well-known strong relationship between oil prices and food prices (FAO 2015b; World Bank 2010). In simple terms this is because fuel prices directly affect food prices, utility operations, and nearly anything that consumers buy. For example, FAO (2015b) reported the steepest drop of the food price index since 2008 with virtually all major food commodities registering marked price decreases (Fig. 3.6). This drop coincides with a fall in crude oil prices. While the sharp drop in oil prices is enthusiastically welcomed by global consumers, the picture that emerges for oil exporting countries is different; such steep drop negatively impacts fiscal balances, including the financial ability for food import subsidies and, consequently, domestic food security.

Fig. 3.6
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Food prices index between 2004 and 2015

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Looking forward, it makes sense for the energy-rich, but food-deficient Gulf countries to make food security being met domestically, at least partially, a national strategic priority, instead of living under the mercy of fluctuating prices and foreign policy of food exporting nations. Responding to these challenges, Qatar, for example, has identified food security as a matter of national strategic concern. Currently, Qatar produces only 10% of the food consumed, but aims to increase this ratio to 70% by 2020 using modern and water-efficient technologies. Globally, there is growing interest in greenhouses hydroponics; they consume considerably less water and take up less land as compared with traditional agriculture. Moreover, greenhouses hydroponics are more environmentally friendly as nutrient losses can be mitigated and are not released into the soil/water systems to contaminate.

3.8 Reducing Food Waste: Promoting a Culture of Conservation

Food, energy , and water (FEW) are plagued with wasteful practices. Conservation as a concept remains a key challenge in a region accustomed to plentiful and cheap supplies (Hurlimann and Dolnicar 2012). For example, resultant of excessive consumption, per capita electric energy consumption in Kuwait has been reported to be 18318 KWh/year (OAPEC 2013), which is nearly six times the world per capita. It is common practice for people to leave air-conditioning, lighting and water running when they leave their homes. Recently however, grass-root conservation (Tarsheed in Arabic) movement has emerged and generated public awareness of how much is being wasted and how people could benefit economically and environmentally from conservation. Public awareness campaigns however, are likely to have limited impact unless accompanied by changes to regulations or pricing (The Economist 2012).

Regarding the food wastage, approximately one quarter of all food supplied for human consumption is wasted across the food supply chain (Kummu et al. 2012). In high income countries like Gulf States, losses at household consumption stage contribute the largest food waste. As summarized in Table 3.3, roughly 6.5% of cereal food is wasted at the household level, excluding all other losses (FAO 2013). An important aspect of food waste is that food waste represents waste of essential resources, as large quantities of water and energy are used to produce the wasted food. Agriculture already uses 70% freshwater withdrawal globally (and up to 90% freshwater withdrawal in the arid regions) and any increased production will likely mean more water use. In terms of calories 1554 eKcal/day/person is wasted just from cereals and potato (Table 3.3), a half of the daily intake requirement for healthy life. Reducing food waste as an effective tool to lessen food insecurity is a simple option, yet overlooked. It may even sound paradoxical; why does household food waste appears to be so prevalent in a region where population depends entirely on food import .

Table 3.3 Food balance of selected food items supply (local production and import) in the Gulf Cooperation Council States, in ‘1000 metric tons (103 mt)
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To tackle food waste at the household stage, greater attention should be given to ways in which households, food outlets and supermarkets dispose of food waste and to target individual behavior change strategies and challenge social norms, emphasizing on positive food balance sheet and environmental outcomes. Food waste saving practices are urgent and practical, with no costs, trade-offs or conflicts. Efforts to raise awareness and address food waste issues have grown rapidly in recent years. Media coverage of the topic is increasing (Khaleej Times, June 24 2015). Substantially reducing food wastage is no small task; there can be any number of opinions, obstacles, and strategies. Detailed discussion on how this goal may be achieved is beyond the scope of this paper. Readers interested in recommended interventions are referred to Dou et al. (2016).

From food security perspective, reducing food waste can translate into increasing food storage or financial savings by preventing food from being wasted in the first place, and thus directly serves food security purposes. Food waste isn’t new, and it most definitely isn’t just an issue in the Gulf, as it forms the third-largest component of generated waste by weight globally. From environmental perspective, the diversion of wasted food from landfills. Resultant of food waste disposed of in the landfills, a large quantities of methane (CH4) can be released and emitted to the atmosphere, a significant contributor to global warming.

3.9 Climate Change an Additional Food Security Constraint

Looking forward, it is a scientific fact that climate change adds a key challenge to water resources issue, and countries that already suffer from water shortages will be hit hardest (world water day 2007). As discussed in the preceding sections, Gulf countries dependence on food import is driven in largest part by the region’s limited water supplies. Climate change is likely to exacerbate existing water constraints and, hence, tighten frontiers of food production. Climate change is already negatively impacting food production that in turn may lead to high food prices (IPCC 2014; Coumou and Rahmstorf 2012), forcing governments to further increase subsidies to avoid social discontent at a time when oil price has already plummeted to its lowest level in a decade. Countries that already suffer from water shortages will be hit hardest (world water day 2007). And according to the IPCC report (2014), this will lead to an intense competition for water among different sectors, affecting regional water, energy , and food security. So far however, these countries use their vast financial resources to mitigate the challenge of physical water scarcity for municipal and industrial use, and meet dietary needs by importing food. Going forward, how can more food be produced sustainably under these seemingly insurmountable constraints raises challenging questions .

3.10 Research and Development

Science and technology provide sustainable means to feed people and improve their health (Maziak 2005). Closing the yield gap within agriculture production system through the application of state-of-the art technologies and local knowledge is a potentially important pathway towards food security by closing or narrowing yield gap. The biggest challenge in achieving food security will be, among other things, deployment of technologies, and varieties that will sustainably increase the production of food per unit area while minimizing excessive use of water and other agricultural inputs such as energy that could negatively impact ecosystem services. The scale of sustained increase in global food production needed to support growing and more and more affluent populations requires substantial changes in methods for agronomic processes and crop improvement. This cannot be achieved without scientific and technological advancements that result in increased crop yield but that has increased agricultural productivity, particularly in arid ecosystems without violating the concept of sustainability. The primary goal of scientific research in this region would be to quantify to what extent water and land constraints limit countries’ capacities, at present and by 2050, to produce food domestically that they currently import from other countries. Fuglie et al. (2012) points towards promising but highly uneven productivity growth in agriculture across countries and regions. One plausible explanation for these divergences might be investments in research and development, which enhances capacities of scientists to innovate and adapt foreign technologies. In the long run, no region or nation can remain a simple ‘user’ of new knowledge but must also become a ‘creator’ of new knowledge .

Gulf countries are producing infinitesimal scientific publications, despite healthy rates of economic growth. As shown in Table 3.4, it is not the total wealth that determines the level of scientific output as much as it is the investment in research and development. The number of papers in major science and engineering fields published in journals indexed in the web of science database from Thomson Reuters between 2000 and 2011 is shown in Table 3.4. This level of scientific output is disproportionate to the region’s human and economic capacity. While brisk of economic development has brought prosperity to the Gulf states citizens, there has not been a corresponding growth in key human development indicators when it comes to research and development (Nour 2005), a situation commonly referred to as knowledge deficit in terms of acquisition and production (Lord 2008; Spiess 2008; World Bank 2010). Maziak (2005), in his widely circulated article: Science in the Arab world discussed possible explanations of the current status of science in the Arab world and why countries enjoying high levels of affluence like Gulf states are not faring better than other Arab states when their scientific production is weighted against their GDP. Although these estimates should be viewed with caution as these are derived from scarce data, they nonetheless indicate an overall poor research output performance of Gulf States, as compared with North African Arab states (Table 3.4; Spiess 2008). While it is yet inconclusive as to why otherwise resource-rich countries are performing worse than resource-poor countries like Tunisia, it may point to the relevance of institutions, such as research and development investment (Table 3.4). Consequent to the preceding highlights, there is an exigent need to improve agricultural research capabilities in the region if food security challenges were to be tackled, making sustainable future possible .

Table 3.4 Scientific and technical journal articles (2011), research and development (R & D) expenditure as in the Gulf Cooperation Council nations and some North Africa Arab States (NAAS), 2000, 2008, and 2011
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3.11 Looking Forward: Summary and Conclusions

Global community may not be able to feed adequately growing population with changing dietary preferences because of increasing standard of living in large parts of the world. Humans have faced food security problems in the past, and they usually managed to find solution by bringing new productive land to farming. Today, that frontier has either shrunk or no longer there, especially in the severely degraded and arid desert ecosystems. The reason is that most of the land we can work for crop production is already being cultivated. Another serious constraint for expanded farmland is chronic water scarcity most of water we can use for irrigation depleted, as discussed in detail in the preceding sections.

Unlike traditional way of thinking, food security is no longer something that only farmers care about; it is also an environmental and social issue. For example, conventional agriculture (large-scale, row-crop farming that requires tillage and high fertilizer inputs) is known to be a significant source of water pollution, greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, and cause land degradation .

In light of diminishing environmental resources, it is difficult not to be concerned about how can a growing population be sustained and supported by earth’s stressed resources. We should caution here however, that smaller world population may not be a panacea for the food concerns, but obviously it will lower the obstacles we face. It is not only the number of people in terms of resource consumption; it is also lifestyle and consumption patterns. In this research, we tried to uncover important aspects of the ways by which food security demands are met and threats beyond the control of food importing states deserving critical attention. This challenge is especially pertinent in the Gulf region as populations become affluent as a result of higher purchasing power derived from oil and gas wealth, leading to a greater consumption patterns and wasteful habits. Several ways to ensure self-sufficiency of food supply for the current and future human population have been suggested, none of which alone can solve the acute food security challenge, but each can form the basis towards a sustainable solution. Currently Gulf States, though not uniformly wealthy, are food secure primarily because populations benefit from a wide range of support measures (subsidies and price controls) designed to ensure food remains affordable. However, energy, food, and water subsidies in many Gulf countries are on paths that may be unsustainable in the long term.

The Gulf region entails diverse group of countries with deferring level of water scarcity, arable land availability, and climate change vulnerability. Consequently, Gulf States are not expected to uniformly perform when it comes to their capacity and initiatives to meet food security needs domestically. However, the Qatar approach can serve as a model for the rest of the region. Broad range of options, including but not limited to those highlighted in this paper, need to be actively pursued simultaneously, and as efficiently and sustainably as possible. To conclude, among the most promising strategies are: (i) to more efficient in the use of water resources, (ii) adjusting diets to become less water-intensive, and (iii) reduction of food waste .