Abstract
This chapter provides an overview of the leading research on mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a specific focus on the local level. It first discusses the key data challenges and general methodological issues involving the estimation of the actual number of lives lost to the pandemic at all spatial scales – global, national, and subnational. Next, it reviews the main studies focusing on COVID-19 and local excess mortality for all areas in which reliable figures have been provided, and complements them with an overview of aggregate-level studies for macro-areas and countries in which local estimates currently remain unavailable. The survey highlights the persistence of severe geographic imbalances in data availability and studies coverage, even when focusing on national estimates alone. As it stands, granular excess mortality estimates have been produced only for a tiny and non-representative minority of areas. The study concludes with recommendations about methodological choices and research priorities to reduce existing data and information gaps.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aburto JM (2021) The need for all-cause mortality data to aid our understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America. Am J Public Health 111:1721–1722
Achilleos S, Quattrocchi A, Gabel J, Heraclides A, Kolokotroni O, Constantinou C, ... Demetriou CA (2022) Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020. Int J Epidemiol 51(1):35–53
Ackley CA, Lundberg DJ, Ma L, Elo IT, Preston SH, Stokes AC (2022) County-level estimates of excess mortality associated with COVID-19 in the United States. SSM-Popul Health 17:101021
Acosta RJ, Patnaik B, Buckee C, Kiang MV, Irizarry RA, Balsari S, Mahmud A (2022) All-cause excess mortality across 90 municipalities in Gujarat, India, during the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020-April 2021). PLOS Global Public Health 2(8):e0000824
Adair T, Lopez AD (2018) Estimating the completeness of death registration: an empirical method. PLoS One 13(5):e0197047
Adam D (2022) The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts. Nature 601(7893):312–315
Alahmad B, AlMekhled D, Odeh A, Albloushi D, Gasana J (2021) Disparities in excess deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic among migrant workers in Kuwait. BMC Public Health 21(1):1–7
Alfaro T, Martinez-Folgar K, Vives A, Bilal U (2022) Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in cities of Chile: Magnitude, inequalities, and urban determinants. J Urban Health 99(5):1–14
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2022) Measuring Australia’s excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Available at https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/measuring-australias-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic. Accessed 11 Nov 2022
Azevedo e Silva G, Cordeiro Jardim B, Brito dos Santos CV (2020) Excess mortality in Brazil in times of Covid-19. Rev Cien Saude Colet 25(9):3345–3354
Banaji M, Gupta A (2022) Estimates of pandemic excess mortality in India based on civil registration data. MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.30.21264376
Barnard S, Chiavenna C, Fox S, Charlett A, Waller Z, Andrews N, ... De Angelis D (2022) Methods for modelling excess mortality across England during the COVID-19 pandemic. Stat Methods Med Res 31(9):1790–1802
Beesoon S, Bakal JA, Youngson E, Williams KP, Berzins SA, Brindle ME, Joffe AM (2022) Excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in Alberta, Canada. IJID Reg 5:62–67
Benavides FG, Vives A, Zimmerman M, Silva-Peñaherrera M (2022) Excesso de mortalidade na população em idade ativa em nove países da América Latina no ano de 2020. Rev Panam Salud Publica 46:e75
Blangiardo M, Cameletti M, Pirani M, Corsetti G, Battaglini M, Baio G (2020) Estimating weekly excess mortality at sub-national level in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic. PLoS One 15(10):e0240286
Bogos K, Kiss Z, Kerpel Fronius A, Temesi G, Jenő E, Madurka I, ... Moldvay J (2021) Different trends in excess mortality in a central European country compared to main European regions in the year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020): a Hungarian analysis. Pathol Oncol Res 84:1–9
Borrego-Morell JA, Huertas EJ, Torrado N (2021) On the effect of COVID-19 pandemic in the excess of human mortality. The case of Brazil and Spain. PloS one 16(9):e0255909
Brandily P, Brébion C, Briole S, Khoury L (2021) A poorly understood disease? The impact of COVID-19 on the income gradient in mortality over the course of the pandemic. Eur Econ Rev 140:103923
Canadian Statistical Office (2020) Excess mortality in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. Available at: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2020001/article/00076-eng.htm. Accessed 13 Nov 2022
Cerqua A, Di Stefano R (2022) When did coronavirus arrive in Europe? Stat Methods Appl 31(1):181–195
Cerqua A, Di Stefano R, Letta M, Miccoli S (2021a) Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. J Popul Econ 34(4):1189–1217
Cerqua A, Di Stefano R, Letta M, Miccoli S (2021b) Was there a Covid-19 Harvesting Effect in Northern Italy? In: Bernini C, Emili S (eds) Regions between challenges and unexpected opportunities, 61. Franco Angeli, Milano, pp 15–34
Chen H, Shi L, Zhang Y, Wang X, Sun G (2021) A cross-country core strategy comparison in China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea during the early COVID-19 pandemic. Glob Health 17(1):1–10
Ciminelli G, Garcia-Mandicó S (2020) COVID-19 in Italy: an analysis of death registry data. J Public Health 42(4):723–730
Cuéllar L, Torres I, Romero-Severson E, Mahesh R, Ortega N, Pungitore S, ... Ke R (2022) Excess deaths reveal the true spatial, temporal and demographic impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Ecuador. Int J Epidemiol 51(1):54–62
Dorrington RE, Moultrie TA, Laubscher R, Groenewald PJ, Bradshaw D (2021) Rapid mortality surveillance using a national population register to monitor excess deaths during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in South Africa. Genus 77(1):1–17
Economist T, Solstad S (2021a) https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates. Accessed 27 Nov 2022
Economist T, Solstad S (2021b) The pandemic’s true death toll. https://www.economist.com/graphic. Accessed 27 Nov 2022
European Commission (2022) Cohesion in Europe towards 2050. Eighth report on economic, social and territorial cohesion
Fernandes GA, Junior APN, Azevedo e Silva G, Feriani D, França e Silva ILA, Caruso P, Curado MP (2021) Excess mortality by specific causes of deaths in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, during the COVID-19 pandemic. PLoS One 16(6):e0252238
Fouillet A, Pontais I, Caserio-Schönemann C (2020) Excess all-cause mortality during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in France, March to May 2020. Eur Secur 25(34):2001485
Ghafari M, Watson OJ, Karlinsky A, Ferretti L, Katzourakis A (2022) A framework for reconstructing SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics using excess mortality data. Nat Commun 13(1):1–9
Gibertoni D, Adja KYC, Golinelli D, Reno C, Regazzi L, Lenzi J, ... Fantini MP (2021) Patterns of COVID-19 related excess mortality in the municipalities of Northern Italy during the first wave of the pandemic. Health Place 67:102508
Helleringer S, Queiroz BL (2022) Commentary: measuring excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: progress and persistent challenges. Int J Epidemiol 51(1):85–87
Karlinsky A (2022) Estimating national excess mortality from subnational data: application to Argentina. Rev Panam Salud Publica 46:e19
Karlinsky A, Kobak D (2021) Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset. elife 10:e69336
Khader Y, Al Nsour M (2021) Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Jordan: secondary data analysis. JMIR Public Health Surveill 7(10):e32559
Knutson V, Aleshin-Guendel S, Karlinsky A, Msemburi W, Wakefield J (2022) Estimating country-specific excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Forthcoming in the Ann Appl Stat 1–24
Konstantinoudis G, Cameletti M, Gómez-Rubio V, Gómez I L, Pirani M, Baio G, ... Blangiardo M (2022) Regional excess mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in five European countries. Nat Commun 13(1):1–11
Kontopantelis E, Mamas MA, Deanfield J, Asaria M, Doran T (2021) Excess mortality in England and Wales during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. J Epidemiol Community Health 75(3):213–223
Kowall B, Standl F, Oesterling F, Brune B, Brinkmann M, Dudda M, Stang A (2021) Excess mortality due to Covid-19? A comparison of total mortality in 2020 with total mortality in 2016 to 2019 in Germany, Sweden and Spain. Plos One 16(8):e0255540
Kung S, Doppen M, Black M, Hills T, Kearns N (2021) Reduced mortality in New Zealand during the COVID-19 pandemic. Lancet 397(10268):25
Leffler CT, Das S, Yang E, Konda S (2022) Preliminary analysis of excess mortality in India during the COVID-19 pandemic. Am J Trop Med Hyg 106(5):1507
Leon DA, Shkolnikov VM, Smeeth L, Magnus P, Pechholdová M, Jarvis CI (2020) COVID-19: a need for real-time monitoring of weekly excess deaths. Lancet 395(10234):e81
León-Gómez I, Mazagatos C, Delgado-Sanz C, Frías L, Vega-Piris L et al (2021) The impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Spain: Monitoring excess mortality (MoMo) and the surveillance of confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Viruses 13:2423
Lima E, Vilela EA, Peralta A, Rocha M, Queiroz BL, Gonzaga MR, ... Freire FH (2021) Investigating regional excess mortality during 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in selected Latin American countries. Genus 77(1):1–20
Liu J, Zhang L, Yan Y, Zhou Y, Yin P, Qi J, ... Zhou M (2021) Excess mortality in Wuhan city and other parts of China during the three months of the covid-19 outbreak: findings from nationwide mortality registries. BMJ 372:n415
McGrail K (2022) Surmortalité, COVID-19 et systèmes de santé au Canada. CMAJ 194(30):E1078–E1082
Michelozzi P, de’Donato F, Scortichini M, Pezzotti P, Stafoggia M, De Sario M, ... Davoli M (2020) Temporal dynamics in total excess mortality and COVID-19 deaths in Italian cities. BMC Public Health 20(1):1–8
Mikkelsen L, Phillips DE, AbouZahr C, Setel PW, De Savigny D, Lozano R, Lopez AD (2015) A global assessment of civil registration and vital statistics systems: monitoring data quality and progress. Lancet 386(10001):1395–1406
Modi C, Böhm V, Ferraro S, Stein G, Seljak U (2021) Estimating COVID-19 mortality in Italy early in the COVID-19 pandemic. Nat Commun 12(1):1–9
Modig K, Ahlbom A, Ebeling M (2021) Excess mortality from COVID-19: weekly excess death rates by age and sex for Sweden and its most affected region. Eur J Pub Health 31(1):17–22
Morfeld P, Timmermann B, Groß JV, Lewis P, Cocco P, Erren TC (2021) COVID-19: Heterogeneous excess mortality and “burden of disease” in Germany and Italy and their states and regions, January–June 2020. Front Public Health 9:663259
Nogueira PJ, de Araújo NM, Nicola PJ, Furtado C, Carneiro AV (2020) Excess mortality estimation during the COVID-19 pandemic: preliminary data from Portugal. Acta Medica Port 33(6):376–383
Onozuka D, Tanoue Y, Nomura S, Kawashima T, Yoneoka D, Eguchi A, Ng CFS et al (2022) Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design. Int J Epidemiol 18;51(1):75–84
Otiende MO, Nyaguara A, Bottomley C, Walumbe D, Mochamah G, Amadi D, ... Scott A (2022) Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in coastal Kenya: a longitudinal open cohort study. medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.10.12.22281019
Paglino E, Lundberg DJ, Cho A, Wasserman JA, Raquib R, Luck AN et al (2022) Excess all-cause mortality across counties in the United States, March 2020 to December 2021. medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.04.23.22274192
Peretz C, Rotem N, Keinan-Boker L, Furshpan A, Green M, Bitan M, Steinberg DM (2022) Excess mortality in Israel associated with COVID-19 in 2020–2021 by age group and with estimates based on daily mortality patterns in 2000–2019. Int J Epidemiol 51(3):727–736
Perotti P, Bertuccio P, Cacitti S, Deandrea S, Boschetti L, Dalle Carbonare S, ... Odone A (2022) Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on total and cause-specific mortality in Pavia, Northern Italy. Int J Environ Res Public Health 19(11):6498
Ramírez-Soto MC, Ortega-Cáceres G (2022) Analysis of excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality in Peru: observational study. Trop Med Infect Dis 7(3):44
Rangachev A, Marinov GK, Mladenov M (2022) The demographic and geographic impact of the COVID pandemic in Bulgaria and Eastern Europe in 2020. Sci Rep 12(1):1–16
Riccò M, Ferraro P, Peruzzi S, Zaniboni A, Satta E, Ranzieri S (2022) Excess mortality on Italian small islands during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an ecological study. Infect Dis Rep 14(3):391–412
Rivera R, Rosenbaum JE, Quispe W (2020) Excess mortality in the United States during the first three months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemiol Infect 148:e264
Rossen LM, Branum AM, Ahmad FB, Sutton PD, Anderson RN (2021) Notes from the field: update on excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic – United States, January 26, 2020–February 27, 2021. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 70(15):570–571
Sanmarchi F, Golinelli D, Lenzi J, Esposito F, Capodici A, Reno C, Gibertoni D (2021) Exploring the gap between excess mortality and COVID-19 deaths in 67 countries. JAMA Netw Open 4(7):e2117359–e2117359
Santos AMD, Souza BFD, Carvalho CAD, Campos MAG, Oliveira BLCAD, Diniz EM, ... Silva AMD (2021). Excess deaths from all causes and by COVID-19 in Brazil in 2020. Revista de Saude Publica 55:71
Scherbov S, Gietel-Basten S, Ediev D, Shulgin S, Sanderson W (2022) COVID-19 and excess mortality in Russia: regional estimates of life expectancy losses in 2020 and excess deaths in 2021. PLoS One 17(11):e0275967
Schöley J, Aburto J M, Kashnitsky I, Kniffka M S, Zhang L, Jaadla H, ... Kashyap R (2022) Life expectancy changes since COVID-19 Nat Hum Behav 6(12):1–11
Scortichini M, Dos Santos RS, De’Donato F, De Sario M, Michelozzi P, Davoli M, Gasparrini A (2020) Excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy: a two-stage interrupted time-series analysis. Int J Epidemiol 49(6):1909–1917
Shin MS, Sim B, Jang WM, Lee JY (2021) Estimation of excess all-cause mortality during COVID-19 pandemic in Korea. J Korean Med Sci 36(39):e280
Shkolnikov VM, Klimkin I, McKee M, Jdanov DA, Alustiza-Galarza A, Németh L,... Leon DA (2022) What should be the baseline when calculating excess mortality? New approaches suggest that we have underestimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and previous winter peaks. SSM Popul Health 18:101118
Sinnathamby MA, Whitaker H, Coughlan L, Bernal JL, Ramsay M, Andrews N (2020) All-cause excess mortality observed by age group and regions in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in England. Eur Secur 25(28):2001239
Stang A, Standl F, Kowall B, Brune B, Böttcher J, Brinkmann M et al (2020) Excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Germany. J Infect 81(5):797–801
Stokes AC, Lundberg DJ, Elo IT, Hempstead K, Bor J, Preston SH (2021) COVID-19 and excess mortality in the United States: a county-level analysis. PLoS Med 18:e1003571
Tadbiri H, Moradi-Lakeh M, Naghavi M (2020) All-cause excess mortality and COVID-19-related deaths in Iran. Med J Islam Repub Iran 34:80
Van Noorden R (2022) COVID death tolls: scientists acknowledge errors in WHO estimates. Nature 606(7913):242–244
Vieira A, Peixoto VR, Aguiar P, Abrantes A (2020) Rapid estimation of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal-beyond reported deaths. J Epidemiol Glob Health 10(3):209
Wang H, Paulson KR, Pease SA, Watson S, Comfort H, Zheng P et al (2022) Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21. Lancet 399(10334):1513–1536
Warsame A, Bashiir F, Freemantle T, Williams C, Vazquez Y, Reeve C, ... Dalmar A (2021) Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia. Int J Infect Dis 113:190–199
Wijaya MY (2022) The estimation of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia. Kesmas: Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat Nasional (Nat Public Health J) 17(1):25–31
Woolf SH, Chapman DA, Sabo RT, Weinberger DM, Hill L, Taylor D (2020) Excess deaths from COVID-19 and other causes, March-July 2020. JAMA 324(15):1562–1564
Acknowledgments
Responsible Section Editor: Sergio Scicchitano. The article has benefitted from valuable comments of the editors, anonymous referees, Joanna Kopinska, and Samuel Nocito. There is no conflict of interest.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Section Editor information
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2023 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this entry
Cite this entry
Cerqua, A., Di Stefano, R., Letta, M., Miccoli, S. (2023). COVID-19 and Local Mortality Estimates. In: Zimmermann, K.F. (eds) Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57365-6_436-1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57365-6_436-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-57365-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-57365-6
eBook Packages: Springer Reference Economics and FinanceReference Module Humanities and Social SciencesReference Module Business, Economics and Social Sciences