The Dilemma Between Carbon Neutrality and Energy Security: Understanding the Likely Impacts of the Covid-19 and the Russia–Ukraine War on the EU Climate Targets

Abstract

During the Covid-19 pandemic, lockdown measures decreased energy demand and consumption in several regions. In addition to the decrease in energy demand, the slowdown of global economic and social activities also caused a decline in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The European Union (EU) member countries have been among the countries most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic and drops in energy demand and CO₂ emissions. Between January and August 2020, CO₂ emissions decreased by 10.6% in EU-27 and the United Kingdom. As the restrictions for lockdowns started to diminish, economic activities restarted; however, the level of CO₂ emissions still differ in different countries. This situation also links to the ambitious CO₂ emission reductions of EU countries under the EU Climate and Energy Package (CARE). According to European Environment Agency Report, EU-27 achieved 20% reduction target for CO₂ emissions in 2020 in a general sense within the framework of 20-20-20 climate targets while some countries could not achieve their national targets. Moreover, EU countries, in general terms, also achieved the target of a 20% increase in the share of renewable energy resources. In 2020, the share of renewable energy resources reached 21.3% in energy consumption in European countries. Following the 20-20-20 targets, the EU recently adopted a 55% net emissions reduction target by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050. This tendency demonstrated that EU countries were on the path of decarbonising their economies. However, the Russia–Ukraine war challenged the energy security of the EU countries vis-à-vis cuts in Russia’s natural gas supply. As a response, most of the European countries experienced backsliding towards local fossil fuels to diversify Russian gas. This made energy security a high priority for the EU-27 countries and pushed them to reduce their energy dependence. To this end, this chapter aims to examine the dilemma faced by EU countries experiencing the adverse impacts of climate change and energy insecurity. In this sense, it analyses to what extent the Covid-19 measures and decrease in CO₂ emissions in Europe contribute to achieving the EU Climate Target Plans for 2030 and 2050 while discussing whether the Russia–Ukraine war has the potential to change Europe’s targets towards a carbon-neutral continent.