Extending the Theory of Planned Behaviour Model Predicting Vaccine Intentions: The Roles of Conspiracy Ideation and Risk Perception

Abstract

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is a growing health concern worldwide, eliciting reactions from health officials to accelerate the development of COVID-19 vaccines. However, the low widespread acceptance of this vaccine, particularly in the Caribbean, is posing a major threat to the government’s hopes of combating the virus. The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) provides a useful lens to understand the factors influencing individuals’ intentions to be vaccinated by examining the effects of their attitudes toward the vaccine, their subjective norms about being vaccinated and their perceived behavioural control over taking the vaccine. This research investigated the applicability of TPB to explaining vaccine intentions among students at the University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus. Structured online questionnaires were deployed using convenience sampling, and data were collected from 300 students. Structural equation modelling results revealed that attitudes towards the vaccine and subjective norms about being vaccinated significantly predicted vaccine intentions. However, perceived behavioural control over being vaccinated was non-significant. Based on a new conceptualised structural model, the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and vaccine intentions was significantly mediated by vaccine attitudes. Finally, risk perception significantly moderated the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and vaccine attitudes such that high risk perception minimised the negative effects of conspiracy beliefs on vaccine attitudes. These findings suggest that to increase vaccine uptake, public messaging should be less focused on debunking conspiracy theories and more focused on highlighting the negative health effects, both short- and long-term, of COVID-19.