Abstract
An electoral cycle arises in a region when in a short time span a group of countries holds elections with a pattern of similar outcomes. Since the transitions to democracy in the 1980s, Latin America has experienced three and perhaps even four cycles the literature generally describes in terms of shifts to the left or to the right.
Several fine young scholars have contributed to the preparation of this introduction. I warmly thank the research assistantship of Luisa Cajamarca (Université libre de Bruxelles), Roman Perdomo (Sciences Po), Julia Mensa (Universidad católica de Córdoba, Argentina), Mariana Duque (Universidad católica de Medellín, Colombia), Salomé Garnier (Harvard University), and Mariana Chaise (Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil).
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Notes
- 1.
Sciences Po’s Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc).
- 2.
- 3.
See the discussion in Dabène (2012).
- 4.
LAPOP (2010).
- 5.
See for instance these different categories of elections: consolidation, deviation, realignment, reestablishment, coined by Pelletier and Crête (1988).
- 6.
Using Sartori’s classical typology revisited by Peter Mair (alternation can be complete, partial, or absent).
- 7.
To compare all the countries, this research considers three types of elections: presidential, legislative, and local (municipal or governors in federal systems).
- 8.
In Table 1.1, they account for half a point.
- 9.
Chapter 14 of this volume.
- 10.
- 11.
Nicaragua (2009), Honduras (2015) and Bolivia (2017). In 2022, Bukele (Salvador) announced he would run in 2024.
- 12.
In addition to legislative and local elections.
- 13.
- 14.
- 15.
Hence, it is classified as an alternation in the database.
- 16.
A report from the Organization of American states (OAS) mentioned “serious irregularities” that casted doubt on the results. Two separate studies reached an opposite conclusion. See all the documents in OPALC’s website. https://www.sciencespo.fr/opalc/content/crise-en-bolivie-2019.html. Regardless of the alleged fraud, the fact that Morales was “invited” by the army to resign when he had just proposed a re-run of the election justifies his case being included in the category of “destitution”.
- 17.
Reelections: Brazil 2006 (Lula), Colombia 2006 (Uribe), Venezuela 2006 (Chavez), Argentina 2011 (Kirchner), Bolivia 2009 (Morales), Ecuador 2009 (Correa), Nicaragua 2011(Ortega), Venezuela 2012 (Chavez), Bolivia 2014 (Morales), Brazil 2014 (Rousseff), Colombia 2014 (Santos), Ecuador 2013 (Correa), Honduras 2017 (Hernandez), Nicaragua 2016 (Ortega), Venezuela 2018 (Maduro), Bolivia 2019 (Morales). Exception: Argentina 2019 (Macri).
- 18.
All the figures are available on OPALC’s website.
- 19.
They were more present in social medias, a dimension that is neglected by the Manifesto project. See Guevara (2020).
- 20.
On a scale from 0 to 10, share of respondents self-positioning themselves on 0 (extreme left) or 10 (extreme right). Source World Value Survey.
- 21.
The election of Gabriel Boric is a game changer: the social movements managed to have one of their leaders elected president, (momentarily?) closing the gap between the ballot and the street.
- 22.
Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, Nicaragua, Chile, Honduras, Costa Rica, Colombia, and Brazil.
- 23.
See for instance Gerardo Lissardy, “Porqué la idea de que América Latina gira hacia la derecha o izquierda perdió sentido en 2019”, BBC News Mundo, 30 december 2019, available at: https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-50818892 (accessed August 8th 2022).
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Dabène, O. (2023). Introduction: Electoral Cycles, Continuity, and Change in Latin American Politics: A Framework for Analysis. In: Dabène, O. (eds) Latin America’s Pendular Politics. Studies of the Americas. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-26761-1_1
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