China, Russia and the United States: Balance of Power or National Narcissism?

Abstract

Does balance of power explain relations between the world’s three foremost military powers—China, Russia and the United States? What do current trends in relations between the three suggest about future relational dynamics between them? Are they likely to create balancing coalitions, a powerful triumvirate, or will they simply follow atomistic, self-interested policies of non-aligned national narcissism? Balance of power is one commonly held approach to IR, one which leads some observers to entertain a Sino-Russian anti-American balancing assumption, the notion that China and Russia will balance (or are balancing) against the pre-eminent power in the international system, the United States. Yet is this the right way to understand relations between these three powers now or in the near future? This study will assess historical path dependencies, the impact of defense ties and trade, politics in each of the three polities, trust, a brief case study on the Ukraine crisis in light of Sino-Russian ties, and the potential role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization before drawing conclusions about the nature of China-Russia-US relations and the applicability of the Sino-Russian anti-American balancing assumption.