Keywords

1 Introduction

The digital revolution in manufacturing shifted from individual technologies to integrated systems. Most companies that go into digital transformation are trying to enter new business models based on new digital technologies. Industry 4.0 describes the fourth industrial revolution, which leads to intelligently connected and decentralized production, standing at a new level of organization and regulation of the entire value chain of a product throughout its life cycle [1]. Today, industrial enterprises are clearly aware of its potential and are ready for high investments in digital transformation [2].

In the conditions of transitivity of the economy, there is a need for innovative technological transformation of industry—a process that reflects the transition of the industrial sector from one technological mode to another in order to increase the efficiency and competitiveness of the enterprise. Outdated technologies preserve the technological structure of the economy, which blocks its innovative development.

The digital modernization of industry carried out in modern Russia contributes to the renewal of the technological image, covers the transition to the electronic industry, the reconstruction and technical re-equipment of production facilities, the creation of new technological directions, the development of breakthrough electronic industrial technologies, etc. Artificial intelligence, unpopulated and additive manufacturing, industrial wearable electronics, digital reverse engineering, and other things are changing the nature and content of business processes. These priorities correspond to the big tasks specified in the Order of the Government of the Russian Federation of January 17, 2020 No. 20-r “On the strategy for the development of the electronic industry of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 and the action plan for its implementation” [3].

However, we note that the packages of disruptive technologies are already known to everyone: platformization technologies, digital doubles or virtual modeling, artificial intelligence for data analysis and processing. But the technological frontier is constantly moving forward, the speed of this movement is constantly increasing. Against the increasing requirements for the development of the industrial complex, insufficient study of the nature of technological and organizational reengineering tools based on the use of simulation modeling is a contradiction, which requires the development of a model of an integrated digital decision-making module that accelerates the digital development of the company. The model of technological development in the field of industrial technologies will provide the basis for state industrial policy, contributing to the achievement of state priorities. The movement towards technological transformations will be successful if it is to be more accurately correlated with the overall trajectory of global economic and technological development.

2 Methodology

To solve the research problems, authors used a set of scientific methods. The theoretical and methodological basis was the basic provisions of the study of processes and phenomena: system analysis, abstraction, analysis and synthesis. The main method was the foresight methodology, which includes a wide range of research methods: scanning horizons, analyzing scenarios, market prospects and technologies. This method allowed to identify the most functional information resources necessary for the research. Recently, the foresight methodology has become extremely popular in shaping the vision of the future. The use of foresight methodology is a fairly new phenomenon that leads to institutionalized scenario forecasting. The foresight scenario model is more flexible, allowing to see all the scenarios related to the accelerating globalization and modernization of the world economy. The use of the foresight methodology makes it possible to more clearly define the main directions of strategic modernization of the national economy priority sectors, in particular industrial enterprises. Studies that use scenario forecasting are based on purely econometric modeling, statistical analysis, partial equilibrium modeling, and similar methods [4, 5]. The analysis was supplemented by a horizontal scanning that included a literature review, which was applied to identifying technological trends for the industry.

3 Literature Review

Many scientists and researchers studied the digital transformation of industry and its impact on the economy. The author of the article believes that the prerequisites for the emergence of the concept of industry 4.0 are historically associated with the concept of computer-integrated production [6]. The authors of this article also share this point of view. The analysis of the literature shows that in 1960–1980 the process of reengineering was launched, the decision was made to optimize and automate intellectual activity, to change the nature of design, to provide template design of complex technological systems [4, 5]. The breakthrough happens in a moment when workstations enter the market, the movement is aimed at increasing the volume of computer programs that provide speed, accuracy, reproducibility, and archiving of knowledge. In 2010, there was another key decision-the transition to modular structures, which provided savings in human costs and time. At this point, there was an institutionalization of production, automation. The key advantage here is that computer engineering is developing, providing control of complex equipment at speeds in the zone of complexity that exceed the human reaction.

For industries based on advanced production systems, the most important success factors are a deep understanding of production processes, as well as the ability to adapt and develop [7]. For Russia, this is especially important, because in addition to external threats, Russian industry must compete with global European players with a higher technological level.

In their work, the authors define that digital transformation is a broad term that covers changes in business models, activities, processes, and competencies that allow to get all the benefits from the full implementation of new technologies [8]. We believe that industrial production in the next 10–15 years will need to implement a set of tasks that have the importance of fundamental ones. The industry must cope with the growing complexity of production, the organization of technological chains and the complexity of products. To manage this complexity, a qualitative leap in reengineering and technology processes management is needed.

Industry 4.0 transforms the business models of manufacturing firms [9]. The studies focus on the maturity of industry 4.0 in terms of value creation processes. They developed a model called the “Production Cost Modeling Methodology”, which consists of five stages, starting with the analysis of the maturity gap and ending with the identification of improvement areas [2]. The author's approach is not limited only by processes, it covers a wide range of Industry 4.0. The key processes that, in our opinion, will determine the technological sphere of the strategic directions of industrial sector development will be associated with the launch of the next innovation and technological cycle, the implementation of three interrelated “revolutions»:

  1. 1.

    Within 5–7 years, one of the dominant processes will be the transfer of the import of information platforms that are the basis for design.

  2. 2.

    Using new materials. The peculiarity lies in the fact that the revolution in design means the revolution of such materials.

  3. 3.

    "Revolution” in infrastructures: “smart environments”, the system of “smart things”, “smart factories” as overcoming the linear architecture of traditional industrial architectures.

Digitized and virtualized systems lead to new scenarios of industrial works, i.e. cooperation between a person and a machine within the framework of a “smart” factory [10]. According to the authors, digital modeling is a core function in digital manufacturing, as it supports experiments and validation of various scenarios and configurations for existing and new production resources and systems, contributing to improved design and productivity [11].

Modeling involves processes or systems modeling, so that the model simulates the actual system's response to events that occur over time [2]. In a fully integrated digital production, the product and its production processes are developed and modeled in a digital environment even before the first part of the material is purchased. This saves significant time and money on new product development, resulting in higher product quality and lower costs [11]. The authors have the opinion that one of the most effective means of digital production is the process of simulation modeling. Simulation modeling is a method of studying a system by replacing a real system with a computer model and further conducting experiments on the system model [12]. The main conclusion, which was made based on the results of the literature analysis, is that it is necessary to find a new platform solution that provides the possibility of using various types of software with an integrated digital module.

4 Results

Today, the pressure of the external market and external circumstances on any business is very high. In order for the business to cope with this pressure, it is necessary to frequently change the production plan to launch new orders, quickly launch new products, and find ways to accelerate production without large investments. A new digital direction—simulation modeling or digital double will deal with the task.

In the prevailing trends of digitalization, most enterprises that strive for effective work should go through the process of digital transformation [13]. In practice, this means moving from the basic technological package to new production technologies. The modern scenario model of the foresight forecast of industrial development, developed by the authors, is presented in Fig. 1. On the left, the network markets of digital systems are highlighted. The horizontal line at the top is the end-to-end technology. The authors believe that in order to achieve significant results, it is necessary to focus on position number five, that is, new production technologies that allow to design and manage complex systems throughout the entire products lifecycle, including business processes such as design and analysis, integration, verification and validation of the product being developed. Next, a smart factory is a movement towards an unpopulated manufacturing, it is a robotic, flexible manufacturing cell. The virtual factory, respectively, is digital design and modeling, it is industrial sensorics, industrial internet. Accordingly, predictive analytics is formed in big data and all this is collected to the factories of the future.

Fig. 1
figure 1

Forecast matrix of industrial development

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Let's note that one of the dominant processes of the digital frontier is the transfer of import of information platforms, which are the basis for design. If we do not provide the design with modern tools, we will “fail” any production process in the world. The transition to modular designs provides savings in human costs and time. The key gain here is that computer engineering is developing, providing management of complex equipment at speeds in the zone of complexity that exceed the human response.

Today, digital technologies help a company to develop and become much more efficient. The digital environment of Industry 4.0 is the result of creating a network of technological components [7]. We will highlight the technologies that, in our opinion, are advisable to use in industrial production: MDC/MDA data collection and management, AR, VR, XR and wearable electronics, PLM and ERP vendors, additive technologies, Napoleon IT, BFG, Rubius, robotics, and more.

The next key processes that we believe will define the technological frontier are new materials and their integration into automated design systems. In Russia, there is no digital global catalog that allows to access the digital image, although many new developments are underway in this direction. The problem is that we will have to combine the development of materials and structures, and we do not have a general idea of the variability of tools for using these new materials. This system is not fully completed all over the world. Smart materials for Russia, this is the region of 2025–2030. With these materials, the construction is designed immediately, and not the composite material.

At the heart of the digital driver, which, in our opinion, will determine the technological breakthrough in the industry, is the process of simulation modeling in the system of digital infrastructures. In our opinion, simulation modeling is a test of scenarios and hypotheses using mathematical model. It is associated with the presentation of a digital model for the integration of technological business processes of the enterprise to improve the physical aspects and support production planning. The ability to connect different parts of the product lifecycle through digital data, which mean design intentions and management information, and use this information for intelligent automation and more smarter and efficient business decisions, is the role of digital manufacturing [1]. In our opinion, the main function of processes' simulation modeling is forecasting the future, it is an opportunity to find the best way to improve the efficiency of the entire enterprise, it is an opportunity to build an end-to-end management system, from scenario analysis of the development strategy to the calculation and issuance of shift-daily tasks.

Simulation modeling of technological business processes includes a number of tools that, using elements of artificial intelligence in semi-automatic mode, based on the inside algorithms, and regulatory and reference information, allow to create a simulation model. The following data is used as normative reference information:

  • products specification;

  • technological routes linked to equipment;

  • equipment and professions that are involved in the value creation process.

The data is created with the help of artificial intelligence and the optimal simulation model for the enterprise is formed, which can be used to build a system of end-to-end management. The simulation model is a tool for everyday management. If there is data on how things are produced and in the process of simulation modeling we know exactly which part came to which machine, when it was processed, which profession was involved, therefore, this data can be used to form a daily task. If you connect data sources about work in progress to the model, this database can be used to perform functions of the MES system, form a daily task and issue it to work places, and get back the connection in the form of data, on where which parts are located. And in this case, we get a digital way of building end-to-end enterprise management, when it is possible to make strategic decisions at the top level, and at the operational level, use digital technologies to issue operational production plans, manage business processes.

The creation of simulation models is based on simulation modeling environments: the traditional way of building models and the approach based on digital platforms. A significant disadvantage of the traditional construction method is the large time spent on describing the current business processes of the production system, which, as a result, can lead to distortion of the simulation model and it will not correspond to reality. The authors believe that when implementing digital production, it is advisable to use an approach based on digital platforms. This is, firstly, the speed of construction, and secondly, the adaptability of the system to the modern realities of digitalization. As a result, we get a model by which we can transform the enterprise (Fig. 2). The feedback of the dynamic simulation model of digital production can be obtained through the dispatching system from the digital module that the enterprise already uses. The simulation model is connected to the digital landscape, to the general enterprise management system.

Fig. 2
figure 2

Digital model of the technological frontier in industry

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The result of the system design activity is a consistent system model, which focuses on the development and improvement of the model using methods and tools based on simulation modeling. A system model is an integrative representation of the structure and behavior of a system, sometimes called a system architecture [14]. The proposed technological frontier allows to create an image of the industry that will be in the next 10–15 years. This is super-accuracy, super-speed, super-complexity on the basis of automation and intellectualization, on the basis of the formation of complexes of information tools, digital infrastructures.

5 Conclusion

Technological modernization means the transition to a new stage of civilizational development, which requires a radical renewal of all economic growth components [15]. The paper focuses on the transformation of industry in connection with the entry into a new phase of industrial development under the influence of the fourth industrial revolution, in which it is important to urgently take measures to implement breakthrough development in order to overcome Russia's lag from the world leaders. The analysis of the key processes of the technological breakthrough allowed us to form a number of conclusions and recommendations. Nowadays, it is becoming clear that the next technological breakthrough needs to be launched and advanced production technologies need to be involved in the process, in which growth should not come at the expense of workers and capital, but through the use of new scaled electronic systems. The transition to the fourth industrial revolution is an inevitable innovation process that will result in fully automated digital production with the prospect of integration into a global industrial ecosystem [13]. The results of the study are of great economic importance, which is to establish a forecast of the development of production and technological provisions for the modernization of the industrial complex in the context of reindustrialization, the implementation of which can serve as a factor in increasing Russia's competitiveness at the world level. The article analyzes the key processes that will determine the technological frontier of the industrial sector associated with the launch of the next innovation and technological cycle. The authors concluded that in the conditions of reindustrialization and for the implementation of the breakthrough development of the Russian economy, it is advisable to use scenario models of the industry image based on simulation modeling. The formed conclusions on the implementation of the foresight results will contribute to scientific studies aimed at implementing programs of structural changes in the industry.