Skip to main content

COVID 19 Prediction Model Using Prophet Forecasting with Solution for Controlling Cases and Economy

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Advances in Data Science and Intelligent Data Communication Technologies for COVID-19

Part of the book series: Studies in Systems, Decision and Control ((SSDC,volume 378))

Abstract

Coronavirus disease outbreak (COVID-19) has threatened the entire world and has made lives difficult. It has drastically affected the way of living, working, and managing routines for the human beings, by living indoors. In a country like India, with a population of about 1.35 billion, the virus is spreading so fast that the control has become unmanageable. This paper presents COVID 19 data analysis and the prediction model that helps plan and organize things as precautionary measures. In this chapter, analysis is performed on COVID 19 data, and the prediction model is proposed for October. The analysis and prediction is performed using two methods, viz. random forest and time series. The chapter also compared the analyzed results. The idea behind analyzing the available dataset and the comparison of two prediction models is to supply some solutions to control the spreading of COVID 19. In this chapter, analysis is presented state-wise and country wise for the active number of cases and the date cases. Recovery rates are also analyzed. Gender-specific detailed analysis is also presented in this chapter with different age groups in India.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 149.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. indianexpress.com 2020 [online]. Available at: https://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/gdp-1st-quarter-growth-rate-data-india-april-june-2020-6577114/. Accessed Sept 2020

  2. cnbctv18.com 2020 [online]. Available at https://www.cnbctv18.com/hospitality/covid-19-impact-hospitality-sectors-revenue-loss-estimated-at-almost-rs-90000-crore-in-2020-6655261.htm. Accessed Sept 2020

  3. economictimes.indiatimes.com 2020 [online]. Available at https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/41-lakh-youth-lose-jobs-in-india-due-to-covid-19-pandemic-ilo-adb-report/articleshow/77613218.cms. Accessed Sept 2020

  4. economictimes.indiatimes.com 2020 [online]. Available at https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/6-6-mn-white-collar-professional-jobs-lost-during-may-august-cmie/articleshow/78162428.cms. Accessed Sept 2020

  5. U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, Washington, DC (2020). Available at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm. Accessed Sept 2020

  6. economics.rabobank.com 2020 [online]. Available at https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2020/may/spanish-economy-contracts-due-to-covid-19/. Accessed Sept 2020

  7. Pandey, G., Chaudhari, P., Gupta, R., Pal, S.: SEIR and Regression Model based COVID-19 outbreak predictions in India (2019). https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20049825

  8. Malavika, B., Marimuthu, S., Joy, M., Nadaraj, A., Asirvatham, E.S., Jeyaseelan, L.: Forecasting COVID-19 epidemic in India and high incidence states using SIR and logistic growth models. Clin. Epidemiol. Glob. Health (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cegh.2020.06.006.Advanceonlinepublication.doi:10.1016/j.cegh.2020.06.0069

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Georgia, P., Tyralis, H., Koutsoyiannis, D.: Predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation using automatic time series forecasting methods. Acta Geophysica 66, 807–831 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-018-0120-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Samal, K., Babu, K., Das, S., Acharya, A.: Time series based air pollution forecasting using SARIMA and prophet model. In: ITCC 2019: Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Information Technology and Computer Communications, pp 80–85 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1145/3355402.3355417

  11. Hobbs, J.: Food supply chains during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Can. J. Agric. Econ./Rev. Can. d’agroeconomie 68 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1111/cjag.12237

  12. Reardon, T., Mishra, A., Nuthalapati, C., Bellemare, M., Zilberman, D.: COVID-19’s Disruption of India’s transformed food supply chains. Econ. Pol. Wkly. 55, 18–22 (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  13. De Vos, J.: The effect of COVID-19 and subsequent social distancing on travel behavior. 5 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2020.100121

  14. inancialexpress.com 2020 [online]. Available at https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/it-industry-may-become-lighthouse-for-indias-growth-heres-how-many-it-firms-operate-in-india/1870795/. Accessed Sept 2020

  15. towardsdatascience.com [online]. Available at https://towardsdatascience.com/modeling-logistic-growth-1367dc971de2. Accessed Sept 2020

  16. Montanari, A., Rosso, R., Taqqu, M.: Fractionally differenced ARIMA models applied to hydrologic time series: identification, estimation, and simulation. Water Resour. Res. 33, 1035–1044 (1997)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. timesnownews.com [online]. Available at https://www.timesnownews.com/business-economy/economy/article/how-the-covid-19-outbreak-has-affected-the-joblessness-rate-in-india-explained-in-4-charts/634284. Accessed Sept 2020

  18. thehindu.com [online]. Available at https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/amid-covid-19-impact-indian-economy-forecast-to-contract-59-in-2020-un/article32675047.ece. Accessed Sept 2020

  19. rersearch.fb.com 2017 [Online]. Available at https://research.fb.com/blog/2017/02/prophet-forecasting-at-scale/. Accessed Sept 2020

  20. financialexpress.com 2020 [Online]. Available at https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/coronavirus-aftermath-over-70-companies-likely-to-continue-work-from-home-policy-for-next-6-smonth-says-knight-frank-survey/1965348/. Accessed Sept 2020

  21. inancialexpress.com 2020 [Online]. Available at https://www.financialexpress.com/auto/industry/government-public-transport-indian-economy-delhi-transport-bus-delhi-metro-local-trains/2063737/. Accessed Sept 2020

  22. mid-day.com 2017 [Online], Available at https://www.mid-day.com/articles/mumbai-news-metro-monorail-local-trains-overcrowded-commuters-increasing/18155192. Accessed Sept 2020

  23. Dunung, D.P.: bWise: Doing Business in India-Chapter 6 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  24. economictimes.indiatimes.com 2019 [Online]. Available at https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobs/3-day-weekend-good-for-you-and-your-employer/microsoft-japans-4-day-work-week-trial/slideshow/71920356.cms. Accessed Sept 2020

  25. Goi, N.A.: “NITI Ayog,” Government of India [Online]. Available at https://niti.gov.in/content/sex-ratio-females-1000-males. Accessed Sept 2020

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Pallavi Chavan .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Bhalerao, S., Chavan, P. (2022). COVID 19 Prediction Model Using Prophet Forecasting with Solution for Controlling Cases and Economy. In: Hassanien, AE., Elghamrawy, S.M., Zelinka, I. (eds) Advances in Data Science and Intelligent Data Communication Technologies for COVID-19. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, vol 378. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77302-1_8

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics