Political Miscalculation: The Size and Trend of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mexico

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemics have had a significant effect in Mexico, in terms of cases, deaths, and economic impact by various standards. Within Latin America, Mexico is the country with highest lethality. We analyze the differences in the trends of the pandemics at the national and state levels and relate them to variables that have been posed as driving forces of the COVID-19 contagion velocity, namely population density, water security, and the adoption of public policies intended to curb transmission. We run statistical analysis to establish relationships among these variables. Results show that COVID-19 effects on Mexico are strong because only a few of the policies that promote the reduction of COVID-19 contagions were adopted at the national and state levels and with little enforceability. Thus, the policy variables have had no effect on the COVID-19 cases reported. Therefore, the pandemic is far from being controlled. Policies will only be useful if most of the citizens abide by them and if the government enforces their adoption. People will only follow policies either if they are mandatory or if their basic needs are met, i.e., with a strong government commitment to protect their jobs and income. Finally, people follow leaders, so a consistent position between the federal authorities and local governments is necessary to make civil society commit to attend government requirements.