Abstract
Most American Jews have been voting Democratic since the late-1920s. In every election since 1948, there has been speculation as to whether Jews’ affinity to the Democratic Party is about to end; but it has displayed remarkable persistence. Yet, more careful examination reveals that there has been variation in Jews’ voting patterns. Partisanship is not static or immutable. Attention to Jewish voting received renewed attention in early 2019 when the Republicans launched a new organization intended to create a Jewish “exodus” from the Democratic Party.
This chapter summarizes the recent surge of research on Jews’ politics and supplies great detail on their voting history and voting patterns. Section 2.1 provides a review of the literature. Section 2.2 considers the various factors that have been advanced to explain Jews’ voting. Section 2.3 offers a brief analysis of their voting turnout and their political participation more generally. Section 2.4 presents a lengthy history of their presidential voting, including analysis of voting trends. Section 2.5 focuses on three factors that affect Jews’ voting: ideology, partisanship, and Israel. Section 2.6 turns to the contemporary period, including their voting in the 2016 election, the impact of the Trump administration, and the 2018 election. Section 2.7 provides a brief conclusion.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
- 1.
Both conducted 31 surveys over these time periods, with the ANES interviewing 1388 Jews (an average of 45 each year) and the GSS 1246 (an average of 40 each year).
- 2.
The 2013 Pew survey results in this chapter are based on reanalysis looking only at US citizens. As in the Pew Report (Pew Research Center 2013), the JNR are included along with the JBR in this chapter.
- 3.
Because of the large proportion of American Jews who lived in New York City, this averaging gives extra weight for New York by counting its vote equally with the average of multiple studies for the other cities.
- 4.
- 5.
Marks and Burbank’s (1990) multivariate regression analysis confirms a significant Socialist vote in 1920 and 1912 among the Russian-born, who would have been largely Jewish.
- 6.
Another reason to doubt the Manhattan-based standard figures is that they overstate the Socialist voting of Jews in 1920 while missing their Socialist voting in 1916, 1928, and 1932.
- 7.
Weisberg’s 1936–1944 estimates use weights derived by Berinsky and Schickler (2011) to correct for Gallup’s quota sampling.
- 8.
Medoff’s examination of precinct-based analysis for the 1950s also estimates the Eisenhower vote at only about 25% (Wentling and Medoff 2012, p. 163 and n. 410).
- 9.
The margins of error for the Jewish vote after pollsters switched to probability-based sampling are probably in the range of 5%–7%.
- 10.
Averaging Pew Research Center poll results on yearly leaned partisanship totals from 1994 through 2017 obtains virtually the same result.
- 11.
Evangelical support for same-gender marriage could be seen an instance of their wanting to have their religious views enacted into law, regardless of the traditional separation between church and state. However, questions on moral issues, on church-state separation, and on attitudes toward the Christian right have not been asked in the same surveys of Jews, making it difficult to assess their relative importance in affecting Jews’ political positions.
- 12.
Edison Research was the main media exit poll. The Comparative Congressional Election Study is a large academic survey, while J Street is the progressive group that lobbies for a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinians dispute.
References
Abrams, S.J., and S.M. Cohen. 2016. The persisting liberalism of (most) American Jews: The Pew survey of 2013 in historical context. In Minority voting in the US, ed. K.L. Kreider and T.J. Baldino, vol. 2, 95–123. Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger.
Adams, P. 2014. Politics, faith, and the making of American Judaism. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Allinsmith, W., and B. Allinsmith. 1948. Religious affiliation and politico-economic attitude: A study of eight major US religious groups. Public Opinion Quarterly 12 (3): 377–389.
Allswang, J.M. 1971. A house for all peoples: Ethnic politics in Chicago, 1890–1936. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky.
Andersen, K. 1979. The creation of a Democratic majority, 1928–1936. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Berinsky, A. J., and E. Schickler. 2011. The American mass public in the 1930s and 1940s [Computer file]. Individual surveys conducted by the Gallup Organization [producers], 1936–1945: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut [distributor].
Brady, H.E., M.C. Herron, W.R. Mebane Jr., J.S. Sekhon, K.W. Shotts, and J. Wand. 2001. Law and data: The butterfly ballot episode. PS: Political Science and Politics 34 (1): 59–69.
Brenner, S. 1964. Patterns of Jewish-Catholic Democratic voting and the 1960 presidential vote. Jewish Social Studies 26 (3): 169–178.
Burner, D. 1968. The politics of provincialism: The Democratic party in transition, 1918–1932. New York: Knopf.
Campbell, A., P.E. Converse, W.E. Miller, and D.E. Stokes. 1960. The American voter. New York: Wiley.
Chyet, S.F. 1958. The political rights of Jews in the US, 1776–1840. American Jewish Archives 10 (1): 14–75.
Cohen, N.W. 1984. Encounter with emancipation: The German Jews in the US, 1830–1914. Philadelphia: Jewish Publication Society of America.
Cohen, S.M. 1983. American modernity and Jewish identity. New York: Tavistock.
———. 1989. The dimensions of American liberalism. New York: American Jewish Committee.
Cohen, S. M., and S. Abrams. 2012. Workmen’s Circle/Arbeter Ring 2012 American Jews’ political values survey. http://www.bjpa.org/Publications/downloadFile.cfm?FileID=13871. Accessed 20 Aug 2015.
Cohen, S.M., and C.S. Liebman. 1997. American Jewish liberalism: Unraveling the strands. Public Opinion Quarterly 61 (3): 405–430.
Cohn, W. 1958. The politics of American Jews. In The Jews: Social patterns of an American group, ed. M. Sklare, 614–626. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.
Dahl, R.A. 1961. Who governs? New Haven: Yale University Press.
Dalin, D.G. 1992. Louis Marshall, the Jewish vote, and the Republican party. Jewish Political Studies Review 4 (1): 55–84.
Dawidowicz, L.S. 1961. Religion in the 1960 Presidential campaign. American Jewish Year Book 62: 111–128.
———. 1963. Louis Marshall’s Yiddish newspaper, The Jewish World. Jewish Social Studies 25 (2): 102–132.
Dawidowicz, L.S., and L.J. Goldstein. 1974. The American Jewish liberal tradition. In The Jewish Community in America, ed. M. Sklare, 285–300. New York: Behrman House.
Diner, H.R. 1992. A time for gathering: The second migration, 1820–1880. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins.
Djupe, P.A. 2007. The evolution of Jewish pluralism: The public opinion and political preferences of American Jews. In From Pews to Polling Places, ed. J.M. Wilson, 185–212. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.
El Azhary, M.S. 1980. Political cohesion of American Jews in American politics: A reappraisal of their role in presidential elections. Washington, DC: University Press of America.
Feingold, H.L. 1992. A time for searching: Entering the mainstream, 1920–1945. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
———. 2014. American Jewish political culture and the liberal persuasion. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press.
Fingerhut, E. 2008. Some stats on the Orthodox Jewish vote. JTA, 25 Nov. http://www.jta.org/2008/11/26/news-opinion/the-telegraph/some-stats-on-the-orthodox-jewish-vote. Accessed 25 Apr 2016.
Fisher, A. 1976. Continuity and erosion of Jewish liberalism. American Jewish Historical Quarterly 66 (2): 322–348.
Forman, I.N. 2001. The politics of minority consciousness: The historical voting behavior of American Jews. In Jews in American politics, ed. L.S. Maisel and I.N. Forman, 141–160. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.
Fuchs, L.H. 1955. American Jews and the presidential vote. American Political Science Review 49 (2): 385–401.
———. 1956. The political behavior of American Jews. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.
———. 1976. Introduction. American Jewish Historical Quarterly 66 (2): 181–189.
Gamm, G.H. 1989. The making of the New Deal Democrats: Voting behavior and realignment in Boston, 1920–1940. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Ginsberg, B. 1993. The fatal embrace: Jews and the state. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Goren, A. 1961. A portrait of ethnic politics: The socialists and the 1908 and 1910 congressional elections on the East Side. Publication of the American Jewish Historical Society 50 (March): 202–238.
Greenberg, A., and K.D. Wald. 2001. Still liberal after all these years? In Jews in American Politics, ed. L.S. Maisel and I.N. Forman, 161–193. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.
Guysenir, M.G. 1958. The Jewish vote in Chicago. Jewish Social Studies 20 (4): 195–214.
Hasen, R.L. 2012. The Voting Wars: From Florida 2000 to the Next Election Meltdown. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Heitzmann, W.R. 1975. American Jewish voting behavior: A history and analysis. San Francisco: R and E Research Associates.
Himmelfarb, M. 1969. Is American Jewry in crisis? Commentary 47 (3): 33–42.
———. 1970. Jewish class conflict? Commentary 49 (1): 37–42.
———. 1973. The Jewish vote (again). Commentary 55 (6): 81–85.
———. 1981. Are Jews becoming Republican. Commentary 72 (2): 27–31.
Howe, I. 1976. World of our fathers. New York: Harcourt Brace-Jovanovich.
Inglehart, R. 1977. The silent revolution: Changing values and political styles among western publics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Isaacs, S.D. 1974. Jews and American politics. Garden City, NY: Doubleday.
Kessner, T. 1981. Jobs, ghettoes, and the urban economy, 1880–1935. American Jewish History 71: 228–236.
Klausner, S. Z. 2013. Pew Study of American Jewry: A few grains of salt. Jewish Free-Culture Society. http://jewishfreeculture.org/news/pew-study-of-american-jewry-a-few-grains-of-salt-by-dr-samuel-klausner-2/. Accessed 5 Oct 2015.
Kotler-Berkowitz, L.A. 2005. Ethnicity and political behavior among American Jews: Findings from the National Jewish Population Survey 2000–01. Contemporary Jewry 25 (1): 132–157.
———. 2017. The structure of political divisions among American Jews. Contemporary Jewry 37 (1): 5–27.
Ladd, E.C., Jr., and C.D. Hadley. 1975. Transformations of the American party system. New York: Norton.
Ladd, E.C., Jr., and S.M. Lipset. 1973. Academics, politics, and the 1971 election. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute.
Lazarowitz, A. 2010. Ethnic influence and American foreign policy: American Jewish leaders and President Jimmy Carter. Shofar 29 (1): 112–136.
Lenski, G.E. 1967. Status inconsistency and the vote: A four nation test. American Sociological Review 32 (2): 298–301.
Levey, G.B. 1996. The liberalism of American Jews: Has it been explained? British Journal of Political Science 26 (3): 369–401.
Levy, M.R., and M.S. Kramer. 1972. The ethnic factor: How America’s minorities decide elections. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Lewin, K. 1941. Self-hatred among Jews. Contemporary Jewish Record, June.
Liebman, C.S. 1973. The ambivalent American Jew. Philadelphia: Jewish Publication Society of America.
Liebman, C.S., and S.M. Cohen. 1999. Jewish liberalism revisited. In Jews in America, ed. R.R. Farber and C.I. Waxman, 197–200. Hanover, NH: Brandeis University Press.
Lipset, S.M. 1963. Political man. Garden City, NY: Anchor Books.
Lipset, S.M., and E. Raab. 1995. Jews and the new American scene. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Lubell, S. 1951. The future of American politics. New York: Harper and Brothers.
MacInnis, B., J.A. Krosnick, A.S. Ho, and M. Cho. 2018. The accuracy of measurements with probability and nonprobability survey samples. Public Opinion Quarterly 82 (4): 707–744.
Maisel, S.L., and I.N. Forman, eds. 2001. Jews in American politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.
Manor, E. 2009. Forward: Immigrants, Socialists, and Jewish politics in New York: 1890–1917. Brighton: Sussex Academic Press.
Manza, J., and C. Brooks. 1997. The religious factor in US presidential elections. American Journal of Sociology 103 (1): 38–81.
Marcus, J.R. 1989. US Jewry, 1776–1985. Vol. 1. Detroit: Wayne State University Press.
Marks, G., and M. Burbank. 1990. Immigrant support for the American Socialist party, 1912 and 1920. Social Science History 14 (2): 175–202.
Mazur, E.H. 1990. Minyans for a prairie city: The politics of Chicago Jewry, 1850–1940. New York: Garland.
Medding, P.Y. 1977. Towards a general theory of Jewish political interests and behaviour. Jewish Journal of Sociology 19 (2): 115–144.
Medoff, R. 2002. Jewish Americans and political participation: A reference handbook. Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-CLIO.
———. 2012. Many Jewish voters turned against Truman in ’48. http://wymaninstitute.org/articles/2012-9-jewish-voters-against-truman.php. Accessed 17 Sept 2015.
Mellman, M.S., A. Strauss, and K.D. Wald. 2012. Jewish American voting behavior, 1972–2008. Washington, DC: Solomon Project.
Norpoth, H. 2019. The American voter in 1932: Evidence from a confidential survey. PS: Political Science and Politics 52 (1): 14–19.
Petrocik, J.R. 1981. Party coalitions: Realignments and the decline of the New Deal party system. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Pew Research Center. 2013. A portrait of Jewish Americans: Findings from the Pew Research Center Survey of US Jews. 1 Oct. http://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2013/10/jewish-american-full-report-for-web.pdf. Accessed 15 Nov 2018.
———. 2018. Party identification trends, 1992–2017. 20 Mar. http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/party-identification-trends-1992-2017/. Accessed 17 July 2018.
Rischin, M. 1962. The promised city. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Rocklin, M. 2017. Are American Jews shifting their political affiliation? Mosaic, 18 Jan. https://mosaicmagazine.com/observation/2017/01/are-american-jews-shifting-their-political-affiliation/. Accessed 6 Mar 2017.
Sales, B. 2016. Few Republican Jewish Coalition leaders open wallets for Donald Trump. JTA, 1 Nov. http://www.jta.org/2016/11/01/news-opinion/politics/few-republican-jewish-coalition-leaders-open-wallets-for-donald-trump. Accessed 21 Nov 2016.
Sarna, J.D. 1981. Jacksonian Jew. New York: Holmes and Meier.
———. 2004. American Judaism: A history. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
———. 2012. When General Grant expelled the Jews. New York: Schocken Books.
Sarna, J.D., and B. Shapell. 2015. Lincoln and the Jews. New York: Thomas Dunne Books.
Schwartz, S.H. 1994. Are there universal aspects in the structure and contents of human values? Journal of Social Issues 50 (4): 19–45.
Schwartz, S.H., and S. Huismans. 1995. Value priorities and religiosity in four western religions. Social Psychology Quarterly 58 (2): 88–107.
Shapiro, E. S. 2000. Waiting for righty? An interpretation of the political behavior of American Jews. Michael, 155–179.
Sheskin, I.M. 2013. Geography, demography, and the Jewish vote. In American Politics and the Jewish Community, ed. D. Schnur, 37–76. West Lafayette, IN: Purdue University Press.
———. 2016. An introduction to the Jewish voter. In Minority voting in the US, ed. K.L. Kreider and T.J. Baldino, vol. 2, 61–94. Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger.
———. 2018. The 2018 Detroit Jewish Population Study. Detroit: Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Detroit.
Smith, T.W. 2005. Jewish distinctiveness in America: A statistical portrait. New York: American Jewish Committee.
Stanley, H.W., and R.G. Niemi. 2006. Partisanship, party coalition, and group support, 1952–2004. Presidential Studies Quarterly 36 (2): 172–188.
US Election Project. 2019. http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present. Accessed 8 Apr 2019.
Uslaner, E.M. 2015. What’s the matter with Palm Beach county? Politics and Religion 8 (4): 699–717.
Uslaner, E.M., and M. Lichbach. 2009. Identity versus identity: Israel and Evangelicals and the two-front war for Jewish votes. Politics and Religion 2 (3): 395–419.
Wald, K.D. 2015. The choosing people: Interpreting the puzzling politics of American Jewry. Politics and Religion 8 (1): 4–35.
———. 2016. Politically hyperactive? The civic participation of American Jews. Politics, Groups, and Identities 4 (4): 545–560.
———. 2019. The foundations of American Jewish liberalism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Wald, K.D., and M.D. Martinez. 2001. Jewish religiosity and political attitudes in the US and Israel. Political Behavior 23 (4): 377–397.
Wald, K.D., and L. Sigelman. 1997. Romancing the Jews: The Christian Right in search of strange bedfellows. In Sojourners in the wilderness, ed. C.E. Smidt and J.M. Penning, 139–168. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.
Wald, K.D., and B.D. Williams. 2006. American Jews and Israel: The sources of politicized ethnic identity. Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 12: 205–237.
Weisberg, H. F. 2011. The distinctiveness of the Jewish-American voter. Paper presented at the Symposium on Jewish Political Behavior, Frankel Institute for Advanced Judaic Studies, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 10–11 Nov.
Weisberg, H.F. 2012. Reconsidering Jewish presidential voting statistics. Contemporary Jewry 32 (3): 215–236.
———. 2014. Tradition! Tradition? Jewish voting in the 2012 election. PS: Political Science and Politics 47 (3): 629–635.
———. 2015. The decline in the white vote for Barack Obama in 2012: Racial attitudes or the economy? Electoral Studies 40: 449–459.
———. 2019. The politics of American Jews. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
Wentling, S.S., and R. Medoff. 2012. Herbert Hoover and the Jews. Washington, DC: Wyman Institute.
Weyl, N. 1968. The Jew in American politics. New Rochelle, NY: Arlington House.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Weisberg, H.F. (2020). The Presidential Voting of American Jews. In: Dashefsky, A., Sheskin, I. (eds) American Jewish Year Book 2019. American Jewish Year Book, vol 119. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-40371-3_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-40371-3_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-40370-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-40371-3
eBook Packages: Religion and PhilosophyPhilosophy and Religion (R0)